JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 15, 8:54 PM EST588
FXUS63 KJKL 160154
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
854 PM EST Wed Jan 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Aside from near normal temperatures Friday and Saturday, below
normal readings are expected for the next week. Apparent
temperatures are forecast near or below zero for much of the
area on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.
- Light rain (rather than snow!) is forecast to arrive late Friday
night or early Saturday and last into the afternoon or evening.
- Light snow accumulations will be possible for portions of the
area Saturday night through Sunday evening.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 853 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
Temperatures have fallen off into the 10s north to mid 20s south
this evening. The drop in temperatures is about to slow across
most of the area as mid-level warm air advection cloud cover
moves from Indiana and Central Kentucky into eastern Kentucky over
the next few hours. Expect temperatures to actually begin rising
in many locations during the second half of tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 445 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
The broad flow around a large, elongated low pressure system over
Hudson Bay will bring warm air advection for our area tonight and
early Thursday, followed by cold air advection in the afternoon
and evening. The defined frontal boundaries with the system will
remain to our north, but the advection regimes will still have an
effect on our weather. The initial warm air advection and its
isentropic lift will result in increasing low-mid level clouds,
and possibly a few flurries, but the deeper moisture and better
shot at some light snow will be further north. The later cold air
advection and steepening low level lapse rates, along with some
limited heating, will result in low clouds becoming convective in
nature in the afternoon. The top of the layer might be marginally
cold enough for a few flurries in the afternoon and evening,
mainly over the northeastern portion of the forecast area.
Surface ridging will build in from the west on Thursday night.
With this, any flurries should eventually depart to the east.
However, forecast soundings show low level moisture remaining
trapped beneath an inversion, with clouds possibly being hard to
shake, especially in our northeastern counties.
The increasing clouds and warm air advection tonight should
result in low temperatures occurring midway through the night,
with readings climbing overnight. This lowers confidence in the
temperature forecast due to uncertainty of when temperatures will
start to rebound.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
A large ridge of high pressure will be in place over the eastern
third of the CONUS to begin the extended period of the forecast. The
ridging will be present both at the surface and aloft, with the
surface reflection a bit stronger than the upper version. This
system will bring dry but cold weather to eastern Kentucky on
Friday. However, this ridge will be on its way out by early Friday
evening, as a large and well developed area of low pressure moves
our way from the west. Clouds will increase throughout the day
Friday, with rain eventually moving into our southwest counties by
mid to late Friday evening. The rain will gradually increase in
coverage from west to east Friday night, and should become
widespread by early Saturday morning, as low pressure moves by to
both our north and south. In other words, both a northern stream
system and southern stream system will be affecting our weather
heading into and over the upcoming weekend. These two systems will
combine some of their energy, allow for widespread cloud cover and
rain across our entire area Friday night through Saturday. The good
news is that persistent southerly flow will set up ahead of the
approaching low pressure system, and will allow temperatures to warm
well into the 40s both Friday and Saturday.
Colder air will quickly filter into the area late Saturday and
Saturday night, as the northern stream low begins to move off to our
east and winds shift to the northwest behind it. This change in
temperatures will in turn lead to rain mixing with and then changing
to snow Saturday evening and night. By early Sunday morning, the
transition to snow should be complete. The latest model data
suggests that we could still see light snow accumulations across the
area to finish out the second half of the weekend, with 1 to 2
inches of snow possible in our higher terrain along the Virginia
border and in and area from Inez to Salyersville to Hyden to Evarts
to Whitesburg to Phelps and back up to Inez from there. The rest of
the forecast area, except along the I-64 and I-75 corridors, should
see less than an inch of snow. The snow should taper off Sunday and
Sunday night, and finally exit the area by early Monday morning.
Much colder air will filter into the region the first few days of
the new work week, as a sprawling area of high pressure moves in
from the north to begin the week. This ridge pull the coldest air of
the season so far into the CONUS as it will have originated in the
Arctic. Daytime highs Monday and Tuesday will most likely not make
it out of the teens across the area. We could also see lows in the
single digits Monday through Wednesday, as the cold air becomes
firmly entrenched. Temperatures could be slightly less cold for
Wednesday, but will likely only max out in the low to mid 20s for
most locations. Several model solutions are predicting the arctic
outbreak next week, including the latest run of the GFS Ensembles.
We will be keeping a close eye on snow totals and potential impacts
from the cold as far as weather hazards go in the extended. Used a
blend of the latest runs of the NBM, GFS, and ECMWF models to
formulate the extended portion of the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 648 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
VFR conditions observed at TAF issuance time will continue into
the day on Thursday. Mid-level clouds will move in from the
northwest late tonight and gradually lower to high-end MVFR/low-
end VFR with the passage of a cold front. A few snow flurries are
possible on Thursday, mainly well east of I-75. West southwest
winds will begin to increase by midday Thursday, with gusts around
20 kts during the afternoon.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 15, 8:54 PM EST---------------
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