Please read the newsposts on the homepage! Some are rules some are archives from past events.
380 FXUS64 KMOB 100911AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL311 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Tonight)Issued at 311 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025An upper level trough over the Southern Plains will slowly move into the Mississippi Valley today. A surface low, currently off the TX/LA coast will move to the east, hugging the coastline. Currently, area radars show a large area of precip over central Mississippi, moving into the interior portions of the forecast area. A dry layer remains above/at the surface, where dewpoint depressions were upwards of 15 degrees. This has led to mainly virga across our northern zones, with a few isolated pockets of sleet reported earlier. Through the next few hours, the vertical column will continue to saturate, with the onset of measurable precipitation expected within the next few hours. Temperatures are a few degrees warmer than previously forecast, with obs showing temps in the near 40. As the lower levels saturate, our temps may drop a couple of degrees, but will remain above freezing. While it's possible that we see a few more pockets of sleet mix in with rain north of US-84, the likelihood is very low, thus our shot at wintry precip has all but ended. Rain will become more widespread through the day as the surface low moves along our coastline. Meanwhile, a leading shortwave is expected to round the base of the trough to our west, with the low level jet moving over the area during the late morning through afternoon hours. The combination of the increasing pressure gradient and strong low level winds will lead to breezy conditions along the coast and in our marine zones, with gusts up to 40 mph. Therefore, a Wind Advisory remains in effect from 6 am to 6 pm today. The stronger onshore flow will also lead to high surf conditions, with surf heights approaching 9 feet this afternoon. Winds will diminish by sunset as the pressure gradient relaxes. Rain chances will also come to an end late this evening, leaving cloudy conditions through the overnight hours. This will limit cooling overnight, but CAA will allow temps to drop into the upper 20s across our northern areas to the lower 30s along the coast. /73&&.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)Issued at 311 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025An elongated positively tilted upper trof which stretches mostlyfrom the eastern states into the south central states weakens andmoves off into the western Atlantic through Saturday night. Alarger upper trof meanwhile evolves over the western and centralstates then gradually transitions to be mostly over the interior eastern states and northern/central Plains. A surface low isexpected to move from over the northern Plains on Saturday to offacross the Great Lakes region, and in the process brings a weaktrailing cold front through the forecast area late Sunday night into early Monday morning. A secondary surface low appears toprogress across the northern Gulf with the frontal passage, andrain chances for the forecast area Sunday night into Mondaymorning will depend heavily on just how strong this surface low turns out to be. Have continued with dry conditions for Saturday through Sunday morning, with just a small chance for rain returning to much of the coastal areas and extreme southeast Mississippi by Sunday afternoon. For Sunday night, have for now gonewith slight chance pops well inland with chance pops further to the coast, then for Monday morning will have slight chance to chance pops mainly along and east of I-65. While lows Sunday nightdrop to near freezing well inland, it appears that theprecipitation will come to an end over this portion before therewill be the potential for any wintry precipitation. Dry conditionsare expected for Monday afternoon through the remainder of theperiod. Apparent temperature values drop to 17-20 well inlandMonday night and again Wednesday night, and it's possible that aCold Weather Advisory may become necessary well inland for thesetwo nights. A High Risk of rip currents is in effect for Saturday,with a moderate risk for Saturday night. A low risk is expected for Sunday through Tuesday. /29&&.MARINE...Issued at 311 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2025A Gale Warning is in effect today, then a Small Craft Advisorywill be in effect for tonight into mid Saturday morning as windsand seas subside. /29&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 60 33 48 30 55 41 57 32 / 90 30 0 0 20 40 20 0 Pensacola 65 37 47 33 54 45 59 36 / 100 60 0 0 10 40 30 0 Destin 65 39 50 36 54 46 61 38 / 90 80 0 0 10 40 30 0 Evergreen 51 31 45 24 53 34 56 27 / 100 60 0 0 10 20 10 0 Waynesboro 45 30 45 24 54 35 54 26 / 90 10 0 0 10 20 10 0 Camden 44 29 42 22 51 32 52 24 / 100 40 0 0 10 20 10 0 Crestview 61 34 47 27 54 37 59 32 / 90 80 0 0 10 30 30 0 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM CST this morning through Saturday afternoon for ALZ265-266. High Surf Warning from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM CST Saturday for ALZ265-266. Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for ALZ265-266.FL...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM CST this morning through Saturday afternoon for FLZ202-204-206. High Surf Warning from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM CST Saturday for FLZ202-204-206. Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for FLZ202-204-206.MS...None.GM...Gale Warning from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ650-655-670-675.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
