ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 14, 3:54 PM EST355
FXUS61 KILN 142054
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
354 PM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An Arctic cold front will move southeast across the region late
in the day, bringing gusty winds and a quick burst of light
snow. High pressure will then build into the region Wednesday.
A chance for snow will return Wednesday night into Thursday as
a warm front moves through the area. A dry period Thursday night
into Friday will be followed by a chance for rain Friday night
into Saturday ahead of the next frontal system. Temperatures
will remain much below normal through mid week and then warm
closer to normal for the end of the week into this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Mid and upper level shortwave over the Southern Great Lakes to
dig southeast thru the Upper Ohio Valley today leaving a
northerly flow in its wake. In response to this upper support -
a weak clipper type surface low located over SE Lower Michigan
to track quickly southeast across Ohio this afternoon to a
position over the Mid Atlantic this evening. An Arctic cold
front associated with this low will sweep east thru the area
late in the day into this evening. Winds will shift to the
northwest and gust to 30-35 mph behind this frontal passage.
Light snow will continue with the passage of the front ending
toward evening from west to east. The best coverage/intensity
of snow will occur across ILN/s northern counties. Due to the
very cold air in place, snow ratios at 20:1 or even a bit
higher, so even our light liquid QPF could produce a very light
snow accumulation of less than an inch accumulation on the cold
ground. In the wake of this system a northerly flow will occur
with surface high pressure beginning to build into the region.
Clouds will decrease -especially across the southwest with some
lingering clouds across the northeast due to flow off the
lakes.
Have adjusted lows below NBM - using a blend of 25 percent NBM
with the NBM. This yields lows in the single digits above and
below zero. Lowest wind chill values look to be zero to 10 below
- just below advisory criteria. Will continue to mention these
cold temperatures in the HWO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A north-northwest mid level flow with surface high pressure
continuing to build across the middle Ohio River Valley. This
will lead to mostly sunny skies and cold temperatures. In the
Arctic airmass - high temperatures will only top out in the
teens northwest to the lower and middle 20s southeast.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak clipper system will drop southeast across the upper Ohio
Valley late Wednesday night and into the day on Thursday. This will
bring a quick shot of light snow to much of the area with some light
accumulations of less than inch possible across about the northeast
half of the area. With mostly clear skies early, temperatures will
drop off quickly Thursday night with early lows in the 5 to 10
degree range. However, as clouds move in ahead of the system and
some low level WAA develops, temperatures will begin to slowly rise
overnight. Highs on Thursday will then be in the low to mid 30s.
Mid level ridging will translate east across the region through the
day on Friday. This will lead to dry condition and moderating
temperatures with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 30s north to
the lower 40s south. A mid and upper level trough will begin to
reestablish itself across the central and eastern CONUS through the
weekend as an associated cold front moves east across the Ohio
Valley through the day on Saturday. Continued WAA ahead of the front
along with some moisture advection will allow for precipitation to
overspread our area from the west later Friday night and into the
day on Saturday. It continues to look like we will remain warm
enough for pcpn to be mainly all rain through much of this event. As
colder air moves in behind the front, some brief mix may develop as
the precipitation tapers off from the west later Saturday afternoon
into Saturday night. In CAA and weak cyclonic low level flow, will
linger some lower chances for snow showers Sunday into Sunday night.
Highs on Sunday will range from near 20 degrees in the northwest to
the upper 20s in the southeast.
An anomalously strong and cold Arctic high pressure system will
build into the region Monday and Tuesday. This will result in mainly
dry but bitterly cold conditions. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will
only be in the high single digits and teens with subzero overnight
lows possible.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak clipper type surface low and associated Arctic cold
front to track quickly east-southeast across the area this
afternoon. As a result a band of light snow will overspread the
area with the best coverage/intensity across ILN/s northern TAF
sites. VFR conditions will drop to MVFR and occasionally IFR as
snow affects the TAF sites. As the system moves off to the east
MVFR ceilings will scattered out from the southwest with
conditions improving to VFR this evening across most of the TAF
sites. Have held onto MVFR ceilings at the Central Ohio TAF
sites until late tonight with cold flow off the Great Lakes.
VFR conditions expected on Wednesday as high pressure builds
across the area.
Southwest winds at 10-15kts will gust up to 20 kts and then
shift to the northwest later this afternoon and gust up to 25
kts. These northwest winds will back westerly tonight and then
southwest Wednesday at less than 10 kts.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings likely late Thursday into Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 14, 3:54 PM EST---------------
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