LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 15, 6:30 AM EST928
FXUS63 KLMK 151130
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
630 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* After a very cold start, temperatures will struggle today, with
only the snow-free areas of south central Kentucky getting above
freezing.
* Milder temperatures Friday, with widespread rain Friday night
into Saturday, likely changing to snow Saturday night before
ending early Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 307 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2025
Sprawling Canadian sfc high centered over the mid-Mississippi Valley
will migrate SE across the Ohio Valley today and tonight, settling
over the southern Applachians toward daybreak Thursday. Even with
clear skies, light winds, and the H8 thermal trof already departing,
temps will struggle as we start off quite cold and remain stable,
especially over the snow pack across the northern 2/3 of the area.
Look for highs in the mid/upper 20s in snow-covered areas, while
south-central Kentucky could reach the mid 30s.
Radiational cooling conditions will be favorable this evening,
allowing for a quick drop into the teens. However, warm advection
develops tonight as another upper shortwave trof drops SE across the
Great Lakes toward the Upper Ohio Valley. Increasingly mixy
conditions overnight will result in rising temps after midnight
under increasing cloud cover and a SW breeze. Can't rule out a few
flurries over southern Indiana just before daybreak Thursday, but
not enough forcing or moisture this far south to support measurable
precip.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 307 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2025
Thursday morning, northwest flow will rush into the Lower Ohio
Valley with a weak north to south oriented warm front. So even with
winds veering towards the west-northwest, temperatures are expected
to warm into the mid 30s over the northern parts of the CWA to the
mid 40s near Bowling Green. There still appears to be some west to
east isentropically lifted moisture ahead of this surge. A few could
see flurries in southern Indiana or northern Kentucky, but better
chances for precipitation remain north and east of the CWA. Models
soundings over the CWA show some low level moisture, but the DGZ
remains dry most of the day. Those in the north can expect more
cloud cover while sunshine will be more likely farther south and
west.
Thursday night and Friday, northwest flow is expected to have pushed
a surface high from the Southern Plains into the Tennessee River
Valley. This will back surface winds over southern Indiana and
central Kentucky to the south, increasing warm air advection.
Temperatures Thursday night are expected to "only" fall into the 20s
while highs on Friday reach to between 40 and 50 under mostly sunny
skies.
Friday night, southern surface flow will cause deep layer moisture
over southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Model soundings show
stable rain profiles, no thunderstorms. Chances will begin
increasing in the west before expanding east across the CWA early
Friday night. The heaviest rainfall is expected to fall Friday night
before tapering off on Saturday as a cold front pushes through the
CWA. Winds will shift towards the northwest. Cooler temperatures
will advect into the region. Any remaining precipitation is expected
to mix with light snow/flurries Saturday evening before changing to
all snow/flurries Saturday night. Precipitation is expected to end
early Sunday. Currently, expecting any accumulations to be limited.
Cold air advection behind the front will remain in the area through
the end of the weekend and into early next week. This will bring the
return of sub-freezing temperatures with highs in the teens to low
20s Monday and Tuesday. Nighttime lows could be in the single
digits. On the positive side, skies are expected to be mostly sunny
with high pressure over the region. Slight warming is expected by
midweek.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2025
VFR conditions expected through the valid TAF period, as Arctic high
pressure migrates across the Ohio Valley. Warm advection regime
quickly develops tonight with the ridge axis already to our south
and east. Light SW winds this evening will pick up closer to 10 kt
after midnight, with a mid-level ceiling coming in as well. Can't
rule out a few flurries toward daybreak Thu, especially for LEX, but
if there are flakes flying we don't expect any restriction to cig or
vis.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...RAS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 15, 6:30 AM EST---------------
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