JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 14, 4:32 AM EST077
FXUS63 KJKL 140932
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
432 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Apparent temperatures could fall to near or below zero for a few
locations overnight, and in many places on Tuesday and
Wednesday nights - primarily north of the Mountain Parkway.
- Below normal temperatures are expected through Thursday night,
returning again at the beginning of next week.
- There is the potential for some light accumulating snow later
this afternoon and evening.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
No significant changes to the forecast with just the inclusion of
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids with this update.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers.
UPDATE Issued at 1116 PM EST MON JAN 13 2025
Thermometers continue to drop off through the 20s late this
evening behind a departing cold front. Temperatures are still
expected to fall back into the mid single digits north to lower
and mid teens in the southeastern valleys by sunrise.
UPDATE Issued at 821 PM EST MON JAN 13 2025
Temperatures were running a few degrees warmer than previously
forecast. Hourly forecast has been brought back into line with
observations. Going forecast is otherwise in good shape.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 455 PM EST MON JAN 13 2025
Late this afternoon, an enlongated upper level low extended from the
upper MS Valley across the northern Great Lakes within an upper
level trough the axis of which extended from eastern portions of
Canada across the western Great Lakes to Four Corners region to
the southwest Conus. A shortwave trough moving through this
trough was dropping across the Dakotas. Further west, an upper
level ridge was centered over parts of the eastern Pacific. At the
surface, an area of low pressure was centered near the Ontario
and Quebec border with the cold front trailing from this system
into the Northeast to mid Atlantic states to the Gulf coast
states. Meanwhile, an area of sfc high pressure extended from the
mid MS Valley to the Southern Plains. A sfc low/clipper system was
working across the MT/Dakotas vicinity. Locally, cloud depth
behind the cold front has not been substantial enough for much in
the way of radar returns of any very light precipitation.
Tonight, the enlongated upper level low will work east and
northeast to the Quebec to Central Great Lakes region and more or
less become an open eave. The axis of the upper level trough will
also move to a Quebec to central Great Lakes to Central Plains to
Southwest Conus. The shortwave trough should track south of Lake
Michigan and then merge completely into the trough on Tuesday as
it rotates toward the Upper OH Valley. The shortwave should pass
north of the area on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening with a
500 mb trough axis working east of the area on Tuesday night when
some height rises should occur over the Commonwealth. Meanwhile,
the clipper system should track from the Central Plains/NE
vicinity to IL through around dawn on Tuesday and then across
northern and eastern KY to VA on Tuesday with the trailing cold
front crossing eastern KY Tuesday afternoon to early evening.
preceding the clipper system, the sfc ridge should cross eastern
KY tonight. Cold high pressure noses quickly into eastern KY for
Tuesday night ushering in drier and colder air.
The clipper system for Tuesday will have limited moisture as it
passes, but should be more consequential than the clipper the
crossed the area earlier today. The shortwave trough combined with
the passing sfc clipper and front should combine with cooling
temperatures aloft Tuesday afternoon and evening for scattered to
possibly numerous snow showers along and behind the front
especially east of I-75, with flurries lingering until around
midnight near the VA border before moisture decreases. Omega
should maximized generally below the DGZ which should limit snow
ratios to generally less than 20:1 while QPF should only be a
couple of hundredths on average. For most of the area a dusting
to about a half of an inch will be possible with an inch or more
possible in the highest terrain in the vicinity of Black Mountain.
Temperatures will drop off tonight to the single digits above zero
for more northern valley locations and areas near and north of
I-64. Apparent temperatures/wind chills may at least briefly fall
to near zero for these more northern valleys and areas near and
north of I-64 tonight. Warm advection ahead of the clipper should
lead to temperatures reaching the upper 20s to near 30 in the
north with some mid 30s in the southeast nearer to the TN border.
Another chilly night is expected for Tuesday night especially near
and north of the Mtn Pkwy and KY 114 corridors where valleys and
in general most areas near and north of I-64 should crop to the 0
to 5 above zero range for min T with upper single digits to low
teens further south. Apparent temperatures should again near zero
in these more northern locations.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 432 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
The forecast period begins with surface high pressure over the area.
Throughout the overnight, height falls and an accompanying 90-100 kt
jet streak will dive southeast toward the Commonwealth. The
associated surface low will track through the Great Lakes with a
trailing cold front moving through the Commonwealth Thursday
afternoon. With this system, opted to deviate from the NBM and lean
toward a weighted blend of the GFS and NBM to insure PoP chances (0-
20%) were in the forecast grids for areas mainly north of the
Mountain Parkway. The front will exit quickly Friday morning and
surface high pressure will build back into the region from the south.
Through overnight Thursday into Friday morning, two upper-level
waves will move across the CONUS. The northerly wave is tracking
through the Upper Plains/Southern Canada. The southerly wave is
ejecting out of the Four Corners toward the Central Plains. Once
leeside of the Rockies, surface cyclogenesis will take place with a
surface cold front trailing from the northerly low with another
system developing in the Mid-Mississippi Valley along the cold
front. Together, these systems will track eastward throughout the
day Friday. The southerly surface low will move into the
Commonwealth with increasing PoP chances throughout the day. Showers
will persist through the weekend before cold air filters into the
region late Saturday night into Sunday. The transition from rain to
all snow will occur rather quickly as forecast thermal profiles
quickly drop below freezing overnight Saturday. Snow will persist
through the day Sunday before beginning to taper off into Monday.
Light snow accumulations will be possible and Winter Weather
Advisories may be needed to cover the winter weather threats.
Lingering snow showers will be possible into next week as another
system moves into the region. Snow showers will taper off Monday as
high pressure builds back into the area.
An active forecast period is expected to materialize with fluctuations
in temperatures expected. Highs will climb from the mid-30s on
Thursday to mid to upper-40s for Friday and Saturday before falling
back into the 30s for Sunday and 20s for Monday and Tuesday.
Overnight lows will follow this trend as the period starts in the
teens but warms into the 30s Saturday morning and then falling back
into the teens ans single digits for Sunday into Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 110 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
VFR conditions were reported across the area at issuance time.
Expect just a few low clouds but mainly clear skies through the
morning. A cold front will bring lower ceilings and the threat for
light snow to northeastern terminals late in the day. Winds will
be westerly to variable at 5 kts or less through 12Z before
increasing to between 5 and 10 kts and turning northwesterly later
today.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 14, 4:32 AM EST---------------
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