LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 6, 11:46 PM CST ...New AVIATION...649
FXUS64 KLIX 070546
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1146 PM CST Mon Jan 6 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 247 PM CST Mon Jan 6 2025
Cold air advection continues behind the front that passed through
the region last night. Temps in the 40s are common...not too far
from remaining in the 30s today. Winds have also been quite gusty
with lapse rates off the deck dropping off and some weak surface
heating...allowed for some higher winds to mix. Pressure gradient
should relax a bit overnight and tomorrow winds will remain light
to moderate. That said, winds will remain just elevated enough to
help limit radiational cooling...although it will still be cold
regardless of maximizing on radiative processes. For this
continued the cold wx advisory for the entire region tonight.
Tuesday, we "warm" into the 40s again and once again overnight
remain much below average with a continuation of a cold weather
advisory for the northshore, MS Gulf Coast, and SW MS. However,
wind chills for the southshore will be above the 25F threshold
for a cold wx advisory, but lows at or below 32F are likely so had
to issued a freeze watch this cycle Tuesday Night. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 247 PM CST Mon Jan 6 2025
Much below average temperatures will continue into the long term
period despite a more progressive or zonal flow developing aloft.
A trough will begin to dig over the desert southwest allowing for
a coastal trough to develop east of the mouth of the Rio Grande
late Wednesday and into Thursday. This trough sharpens and
eventually evolves to a Gulf Low Pressure system late Wednesday
and into Thursday. The low level flow south starts to increase
allowing moisture to return back to the region, however, with
continued low thicknesses/heights the warm up will be very modest.
Isentropic showers will begin to develop ahead of the approaching
low during the day on Thursday. Depending on thermals some
elevated cooler surfaces may take on a minor (VERY MINOR) glaze
of ice across SW Mississippi before surface warming takes care of
this at the onset of the precip. If this does happen the only
impact would be more conversational.
As the low spreads eastward, QPF signal does increase with
perhaps frontogenetic forcing and rich low level moisture added to
the mix. Latest WPC QPF guidance shows just over 2" on average
for most of the CWFA so with the hard ground after the recent cold
infiltration may take some time and ponding/minor hydro issues
may arise in those favored spots.
Going further into the upcoming weekend, temperatures will
continue overnight and during the day to be below average with Max
T's in the 50s and mins in the 30s on average. That said, beyond
early Saturday conditions seem to dry out as a stronger dry
northwest flow develops over the CWFA. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CST Mon Jan 6 2025
In general, winds have been dying down as the boundary layer
decouples tonight. The two sites that will stick with the elevated
winds are MSY and NEW as the north wind off the frictionless Lake
keeps it from decoupling like the rest of the area. Otherwise, dry
air will keep VFR conditions around throughout the entire forecast
period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 247 PM CST Mon Jan 6 2025
Hazardous weather conditions are expected to continue through
tonight, but should slightly improve on Tuesday morning. That
said, winds and seas will remain moderate through mid to late
week. A Gulf low is forecast to develop and move into the region
later this week and into the weekend where SCA conditions will be
possible once again. (Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 40 26 45 24 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 45 29 50 28 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 47 29 50 28 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 46 32 49 32 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 46 29 49 28 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 52 28 52 27 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Tuesday night to 9 AM CST
Wednesday for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-071-076-079>084.
Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
for LAZ056>060-064>067-077-078-085>090.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Tuesday night to 9 AM CST
Wednesday for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...RDF
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 6, 11:46 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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