PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 14, 7:35 AM EST227
FXUS61 KPBZ 141235
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
735 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Very cold and unsettled weather is expected through much of the
week, with snow favoring the Interstate 80 corridor and the
higher elevations southeast of Pittsburgh.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Very cold conditions expected this morning and tonight.
- Cold Weather Advisory in effect for the ridges of PA/WV.
- Snow shower potential increases Tuesday afternoon with a
passing shortwave, the evening commute could be impacted by
isolated snow bands
--------------------------------------------------------------------
A very chilly morning is ongoing across the region with strong
cold air advection and mostly clear skies. Most area
temperatures are expected to fall into the single digits by
sunrise, and continued mixing with light winds will yield wind
chill values in the 0 to -5F range for the low lands. A Cold
Weather Advisory (known in previous years as a Wind Chill
Advisory) is ongoing across the higher terrain, where colder
temperatures and higher wind speeds will create wind chill
values in the -10 to -20F range this morning and again tonight.
Cold weather aside, snow showers will be the other impact for
the day as a shortwave trough advances across the area. Light
snow is expected to begin from the west during the early
afternoon, diminishing through the evening and early overnight
hours. An increase in frontogenetic forcing during the late
afternoon/early evening hours could aid the development of
isolated snow bands, but the confidence in this is low. The BTV
Snow Squall Parameter maxes out around 2-3 (out of 10) during
this timeframe. Regardless, any banded snow could impact the
evening commute by quickly coating roads.
More widespread snowfall will diminish over the evening as the
shortwave exits to the east. Winds will veer more westerly
during the overnight, allowing snow shower activity to continue
north of Pittsburgh with lake enhancement, and across the ridges
with upsloping. Snow totals through tonight will generally be
1-2 inches across these areas and less than an inch elsewhere.
Isolated locations in the ridges may see up to 3 inches, but
given the lower confidence and isolated nature of this, did not
include the area in an Advisory. Banded snow in the afternoon
could also boost snow in isolated locations, but confidence in
this is low.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Highs in the upper teens/low-20s Wednesday.
- Snow showers will likely continue north of Pittsburgh due to
lake effect into Wednesday.
- Additional snow showers are expected Thursday/Thursday night
with a crossing wave.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Snow shower activity will continue into Wednesday, primarily
across the I-80 corridor and in the higher terrain. Light
additional accumulations are expected, with activity diminishing
by Wednesday evening as brief ridging builds across the area.
Another shortwave is expected to cross the region on Thursday,
renewing convective snow shower potential by Thursday morning.
Ridging and surface high pressure will quickly build into the
area Thursday, bringing an end to snowfall by early Friday.
Initial snowfall totals look to remain under 2 inches (70-100%
chance outside of the ridges), with 2-3" possible in the higher
terrain. South and west of Pittsburgh is likely to remain under
an inch.
Temperatures remain cold through the period, with highs on
Wednesday struggling to make it out of the lower 20s. A gradual
warming trend begins on Thursday with temperatures climbing into
the mid-20s to near 30F.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A large-scale system may bring rain, snow, and/or a wintry mix
into the region over the weekend.
- Cold conditions are likely early next week
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Light snow showers may linger across the ridges and north of
I-80 Friday morning, but most areas will remain dry.
Temperatures will warm above-freezing for most of the area
outside of the higher terrain Friday afternoon.
Confidence continues to grow in a large-scale weekend system.
The warming trend continues on Saturday with increasing southwest
flow, which means there is a chance that rain will be the
dominant precip type during the daytime Saturday for much of the
region with a transition to snow is then expected Saturday
night into Sunday. The exact details of this remain uncertain at
this time, and it is still plausible for a colder solution with
more of a wintry mix. If snow does accumulate in portions of
our region, it will likely be wet (low snow ratios) and may only
accumulate during the overnight time period in the higher
terrain and/or north of Pittsburgh.
Cold, northwesterly flow is then likely to bring continued
snowfall to the area into early next week. Confidence in another
cold first half to next week is high.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Today an approaching shortwave will bring a round of snow
showers expected between 15Z and 18Z. There is medium to high
confidence in low-end VFR or MVFR cigs (about 50%-80%) occurring
this afternoon (after 18z) with scattered snow showers.
However, some improvement could occur in the wake of the front
this evening as probabilities for MVFR drop to 20- 40% (or
lower). By Wednesday morning, there is a medium to high
probability for MVFR conditions to return.
Winds will remain generally out of the west or southwest throughout
the TAF period. Wind gusts today are expected to be around 20-25
knots again possible after 15z. Tonight, conditions are expected to
gradually ease by Wednesday morning.
Outlook...
Winds will remain relatively light until Wednesday night.
The wind is expected to freshen as it backs to the southwest ahead
of an incoming cold front.
Periodic restrictions and scattered snow showers are expected
through the remainder of the week with a series of crossing low
pressure troughs and cold NW flow. Improvement is expected Friday
under a ridge of high pressure.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ074-076-
078.
OH...None.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for WVZ512-514.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Rackley
NEAR TERM...Rackley
SHORT TERM...Rackley
LONG TERM...Hefferan/Rackley
AVIATION...Lupo
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 14, 7:35 AM EST---------------
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