PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 13, 3:32 PM EST882
FXUS61 KPBZ 132032
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
332 PM EST Mon Jan 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Very cold and unsettled weather is then expected through much
of the upcoming week, with snow favoring the interstate 80
corridor and the higher elevations southeast of Pittsburgh.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Snow chances remain low in the wake of the cold front
- Very cold conditions expected late tonight; Cold Weather
Advisory in effect for the ridges of PA/WV
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Dry, cold air from the west will continue to erode clouds and
decrease the chance of snow this afternoon in the wake of a cold
front.
Very cold temperatures are expected during the overnight time
period. The combination of cold air and wind gusts (35 to 40mph)
will create dangerous wind chill values (ranging from -10F to
-20F) in the ridges of Pennsylvania and West Virginia; the Cold
Weather Advisory continues for eastern Tucker/eastern Preston
County and was extended into the ridges of Indiana,
Westmoreland, and Fayette county.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Highs in the upper teens/low-20s Tuesday
- Snow shower potential increases Tuesday afternoon with a
passing shortwave, the evening commute could be impacted by
isolated snow bands
- Snow showers will likely continue north of Pittsburgh due to
lake effect into Wednesday.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
The region will wake up early Tuesday to very cold conditions as
925mb to 850mb temps fall from -10C to -17C, Cold Weather
Advisory will continue to remain in effect for the ridges
throughout the day for the potential of -10F to -20F wind chill
values. Probability of upgrading to an Extreme Cold Warning is
low at the moment, 30% chance of reaching or falling below -25F
is noted in eastern Tucker county. Elsewhere, wind chill values
will likely range from 0F to -10F.
An advancing shortwave, between 11am and 1pm Tuesday, will
increase the potential for snow showers across the region.
Isolated snow bands could develop between 2pm and 5pm with
increase frontogenesis in eastern Ohio and eventually into
western PA (mostly south of Pittsburgh). Hazardous travel may
develop if bands train in isolated locations and/or if
reflectivity intensity exceeds 30DBZ.
As winds shift from the northwest and the shortwave exits to the
east between 7pm and 9pm Tuesday, snow shower activity will
likely shift north of Pittsburgh and continue into Wednesday due
to lake effect. At the moment, confidence is not low for
widespread snowfall totals to be >= 3 inches. Therefore, no
Winter Weather Advisory has been issued.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Periodic snow shower activity is expected into early Fri
- A large-scale system may bring rain, snow, and/or a wintry mix
into the region over the weekend.
- Cold conditions are likely early next week
--------------------------------------------------------------------
A brief period of mid and low-lvl ridging should decrease the
chance of snow early Thursday before a new shortwave ejects out
of the Great Lakes are returns convective snow showers.
The building ridge will likely impact snowfall amounts. The
worst case scenario (99th percentile): 4-5 inches in the ridges
of West Virginia that would prompt an Advisory.
How long the snow lasts on Friday is based on the timing of the
aforementioned ridge. PoPs of 15-25% remain heavily focused
during the early morning hours (before dawn) on Friday.
Confidence is increasing that a large-scale disturbance is
expected to enter the region late Friday into early Saturday.
With increase southwest flow, warm conditions will return Friday
into Saturday. There is still a 3 degree spread for the
925mb/850mb temps that could impact the precip type across the
region (rain/wintry mix/snow). The freezing line could be as far
south as Morgantown or as far north as Lake Huron. If snow does
accumulate in portions of our region, it will likely be wet
(low snow ratios) and may only accumulate during the overnight
time period in the higher terrain and/or north of Pittsburgh.
As the Friday/Saturday disturbance exits, confidence is
increasing with the long range ensemble models that cold
weather returns early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front will cross the region later today, but limited deep-
layer moisture will keep snow shower coverage low -- affecting
primarily FKL/DUJ. Enough convergence along the front could result
in a narrow broken band of snow showers which could result in a
brief drop to IFR visibilities, though this remains low probability.
Around noon, cigs should begin lifting to VFR for PIT southward
after the frontal passage. Areawide degradation into MVFR expected
to return tonight. There is a chance for some brief improvements
improvements tomorrow morning in northern West Virginia and parts of
eastern Ohio.
WSW wind gusts to 20kt are expected with mixing and a sufficient
pressure gradient behind the front. Gusty conditions are expected to
persist through tomorrow night.
Outlook...
Periodic restrictions and scattered snow showers are
expected through the upcoming week with a series of crossing low
pressure troughs and cold NW flow. Improvement is expected Friday
under a ridge of high pressure.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 10 AM EST Wednesday
for PAZ074-076-078.
OH...None.
WV...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM Tuesday to 10 AM EST Wednesday
for WVZ512-514.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...Rackley/Lupo
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 13, 3:32 PM EST---------------
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