CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 14, 10:04 AM EST049
FXUS61 KCLE 141504
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1004 AM EST Tue Jan 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure lingers across the Great Lakes region
through at least Tuesday night before high pressure builds in on
Wednesday. A low pressure system moves across the northern Great
Lakes Friday night with a cold front crossing the region on
Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
930 AM...Widespread light to moderate snow is beginning to enter
Ohio this morning, associated with a shortwave rounding the base
of an upper-level trough which is evident on recent water vapor
satellite imagery. In the most intense radar returns across
east-central Indiana, surface observations indicate brief, lower
visibilites of around 1/2 mile, though high confidence remains
that snowfall rates will be below 1 inch per hour and generally
closer to 0.5 inch per hour. Given cold antecedent temperatures,
roads could still become briefly snow-covered later this morning
and afternoon.
Previous discussion...
It starting off frigid this morning under mostly clear skies
for most of northern Ohio. Lake effect snow and clouds have been
ongoing for most of the night across far NEOH and NWPA as well.
Temperatures are in the single digits to lower teens and wind
chill values are ranging in the -5F to 0F as well.
A strong upper level trough is currently swinging through the
Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes region this morning. There
is a very strong jet stream up to 200 knots roaring from west-
southwest to east-northeast across the Lower Ohio Valley into
the Mid-Atlantic region this morning. A mid level disturbance
rounding the base of the upper level trough is tracking through
the Midwest and around the Cornbelt this morning. This mid level
feature will track right across Ohio later today with a round of
light snow. Clouds will increase quickly by sunrise this morning
from west to east. The area of light snow will spread over all
of northern Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania later this morning
through the afternoon. A quick inch of dry, fluffy snowfall
will be very possible across the entire area today with this
fast moving mid level disturbance. With this disturbance, the
850 mb temperatures will fall to around -20C during the max
diurnal heating of the day and will develop localized
instability over northern Ohio into NWPA. The snow squall
parameter and index shows an uptick in the potential for a few
squalls to develop between 18z and 00z today across the region
as well as this system kicks through. High temperatures will
likely stay in the upper teens to around 20 degrees and wind
chill values will remain in the single digits this afternoon.
As for the lake effect snow bands this morning, the low level
winds will become briefly more southwesterly this morning. This
change in the wind will help push the lake effect more along the
lakeshore and towards the eastern basin of Lake Erie for a
short time this morning. As the mid level trough and disturbance
moves through around midday today, the low level flow will
become west-northwest and will push the lake effect bands of
snow back into the primary snowbelt of NEOH and NWPA later today
through tonight. The rest of the area will be relatively quiet
with some passing flurries possible tonight. The main attention
will be for the LES in the primary snowbelt tonight lasting into
Wednesday. See the latest winter weather headlines for details
on snowfall amounts and impacts. Wind chill values will
continue to range from -5F to 5F through Wednesday morning.
High temperatures on Wednesday will range in the upper teens to
lower 20s. High pressure will start to build in from the Lower
Ohio Valley late Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A brief shortwave ridge will be present across the area Wednesday
night, which will bring in drier air and should ultimately end the
lake effect snow that occurred throughout the day. Cannot rule out a
few light snow showers nearest the lakeshore in Erie County PA, but
given the shift in wind direction and the transition to warm air
advection aloft, do not think the lake effect will persist onshore.
By early Thursday morning, an upper level trough and associated
energy is expected to push south across the Great Lakes region as an
associated surface low moves east across northern Canada. This
system will move a cold front east across the area on Thursday,
resulting in the potential for snow showers along and east of I71.
This system will be quickly moving allowing snow accumulations to
generally be 1-2 inches. There will be a narrow window Thursday
evening where additional lake effect snow showers may impact NW PA,
allowing for localized accumulations there of up to 3 inches.
On Friday, a more substantial high pressure system will nudge north
across the area and allow for dry conditions and even some peaks of
sunshine throughout the day. Late Friday, a warm front associated
with a low over Ontario will move north across the area and mark the
transition to a predominantly WAA regime with increasing moisture.
This front will provide weak support for some precipitation,
primarily rain, to begin, but the bulk of support will come early
Saturday morning as a cold front moves east in conjunction with
strong upper level support. Precipitation will likely remain rain
through Friday night, with a rain/snow mix possible in areas just
ahead of the warm front.
Through this active period of weather, temperatures will steadily
increase as WAA begins to move across the entire area. Wednesday
night will be the coldest with lows dropping into the single digits
and wind chill values again dropping to 0 to -8C. This will be the
last night in this period of frigid cold as lows on Thursday night
drop into the low 20s before only dropping into the low 30s by
Friday night. Daytime highs will climb into the upper 20s to low 30s
on Thursday before the entire area sees above freezing temperatures
in the mid to upper 30s on Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term period will be dominated by a deepening upper-level
trough across much of the contiguous US. On Saturday, the area is
forecast to remain in the warm sector of a surface low centered in
Quebec, which will allow for temperatures to again climb into the
mid 30s, which will likely be the last the area sees that for a bit.
That afternoon, a secondary cold front is expected to push east
across the area, allowing for showers to gradually diminish from
west to east throughout the day. Although surface temperatures are
forecast to remain above freezing, cold air aloft will result in a
deepening DGZ so opted to go with a rain/snow mix throughout the
day. As the aforementioned cold front departs to the east, a surface
trough becomes established and the lake effect machine once again
gets turned on as a much colder, arctic air mass pushes south.
Confidence in location, timing, and accumulations remain low at this
point given model divergence in overall timing of the systems, but
confidence is high that Sunday will mark the transition back to a
much colder pattern. Some long range models also suggest a weak low
pressure system moving up the spine of the Appalachians which would
present a scenario for potentially more widespread light snow. Will
need to continue to monitor the trends in the coming forecast, but
it will be cold. Highs on Sunday will be in the low to mid 20s
before plummeting on Monday to only reach into the mid teens.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
The main message for aviation weather will be VFR conditions
becoming MVFR to possibly IFR conditions for a short period of
time later today. Mostly clear skies will give way to clouds
increasing this morning and ceilings lowering eventually to MVFR
for all of the area. An area of light snow will move across
the area late this morning through the afternoon with low end
MVFR to IFR visibilities 2sm to 5sm expected. After the area of
light snow moves out, conditions will return to VFR to MVFR
ceilings this evening and overnight. ERI will be mostly seeing
low end MVFR to IFR conditions due to lake effect snow bands for
most of today into this evening. The visibility at ERI will be
mainly 1sm to 3sm today and ceilings between 1500 and 3000
feet. Winds will be from the southwest to start out this morning
becoming west- northwest later today 10 to 15 knots. Gusty winds
up to 25 knots will be possible during the daytime hours.
Outlook...Non-VFR in lake effect snow will continue through
Thursday across the snow belt of Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania. Non-VFR is possible with rain and snow areawide
Friday night into Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
A surface trough continues to linger across Lake Erie this morning
and is expected to persist through Tuesday evening. Winds this
morning remain out of the west-southwest at 15-25 knots, but as the
troughs pushes a bit further east, these winds will shift to be out
of the northwest by this afternoon. Given the elevated winds and
increasing wave height as the winds gain more of a northerly
component, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for Vermilion to
Ripley NY into Wednesday. A trickier part of the forecast this
morning is the water level across the western basin of Lake Erie. As
of 2:40 AM, the water level at Toledo was 9.1" above low water
datum, or 6.1" above the critical mark for safe navigation. Over the
last 24 hours, these water levels have fluctuated quite a bit,
dropping to near the critical mark multiple times. As a result,
opting to continue the Low Water Advisory through 18Z today, but
will monitor trends in the winds to determine if this can be expired
sooner.
A brief ridge of high pressure builds over Lake Erie Wednesday night
before another trough impacts the area early Thursday. During this
time, the gradient across the region is expected to increase,
resulting in winds increasing to 15-25 knots from the southwest.
There will be a brief lull in winds to 10-15 knots as a weak cold
front moves east Thursday, but these will quickly ramp back up on
Friday as a warm front lifts north, followed by a cold front on
Saturday. Expecting additional marine headlines through this period.
Aside from wind and wave concerns, very cold overnight temperatures
and gusty winds through Wednesday night will present the possibility
of patchy freezing spray across Lake Erie. With the ongoing long
fetch, warmer lake temperatures are acting to modify the surface
temperatures into the low 20s. Would like to see these temperatures
a bit colder before heavy freezing spray becomes a concern.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for OHZ012-
014-089.
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for OHZ013.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for PAZ003.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for PAZ001-
002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ145-146.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ147>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Griffin/Kahn
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Campbell
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 14, 10:04 AM EST---------------
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