CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 12, 6:04 AM EST ...12z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...310
FXUS61 KCLE 121104
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
604 AM EST Sun Jan 12 2025
...12z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will briefly build into the region
today before low pressure crosses the northern Great Lakes
tonight and Monday, dragging a cold front across the region. A
trough will remain across the southern Great Lakes through early
Wednesday before ridging attempts to build in late Wednesday
into Thursday ahead of another cold front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A quiet and briefly dry and milder day is expected today before
active and colder weather returns tonight and Monday.
Infrared satellite and water vapor loops early this morning show
that a pocket of clearing has worked across the region thanks to
mid/upper shortwave ridging building across the Ohio Valley and
southern Great Lakes as a surface high centers over the
Appalachians. Despite the drier air and subsidence allowing skies to
clear out, lingering near-surface moisture is leading to areas of
mist, with many sites reporting mist/haze and visibilities between 3
and 7 miles. This should dissipate after sunrise as S to SW low-
level winds increase behind the departing surface high, allowing for
better boundary layer mixing along with temperatures rising higher
than dew points.
As implied above, southerly flow and resultant warm air advection
will strengthen through the day ahead of a strong mid/upper
shortwave trough and associated closed mid-level low dropping into
the Upper Midwest and northwestern Great Lakes. This will boost
temps to at or slightly above freezing in much of NW and north
central Ohio for the first time since New Year's Day, while colder
air holds on in NE Ohio and NW PA. Clouds will increase through the
day, and mid-level moisture advection and isentropic ascent as a
weak warm front lifts across the region this evening and early
tonight will lead to pockets of light precip this evening into early
tonight. NAM and RAP forecast soundings in BUFKIT show very little
moisture and lift in the DGZ, with most of it below the DGZ, so
added pockets of drizzle and freezing drizzle this evening into
tonight, but coverage will probably be scattered. As the mid-level
closed low moves into the northern Great Lakes by Monday morning,
the associated surface low will pass north of Lake Huron. This will
drag an arctic cold front through the region late tonight and Monday
morning. Greater frontogenetic forcing along the arctic front from a
165-175 knot H3 jet will lead to a better organized area of light
precip blossoming over NE Ohio and NW PA late tonight and Monday
morning, so have PoPs increasing to likely in those areas. There
will continue to be some drizzle and freezing drizzle at first, but
deepening cold air and improved omega (lift) and moisture in the DGZ
will change that quickly to snow. This will lead to a coating to up
to 1 inch of fresh snow in many areas.
The light synoptic snow will quickly end by midday Monday, but broad
cyclonic flow and strong cold air advection across Lake Erie as the
mid/upper longwave trough reloads across the eastern CONUS in the
wake of the arctic front will lead to lake-effect snow showers
developing in the afternoon. There will initially be drier air
immediately behind the front, so the lake-effect may be slow to
organize, but a W to WSW flow and strengthening thermal trough near
the south shore will eventually support a single band from near Lake
County to Erie, PA by evening as moisture starts to improve and
equilibrium levels rise. The exact placement of the band is
uncertain at this time, with potential for it to be offshore for
awhile, so kept a broad corridor of likely to categorical PoPs along
the lakeshore of Lake, Ashtabula, and Erie Counties Monday afternoon
and Monday evening. Another factor will be the expanding ice
coverage on the lake which could limit organization by reducing
fetch, but that will be dealt with later. At this time, potential is
still high for headline worthy snowfall in the primary snowbelt
through midweek.
Highs in the low/mid 30s today will cool into the mid/upper 20s
Monday. Lows will range from the low to mid 20s tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The short term forecast will include more Arctic cold with lake
effect snow for the primary snowbelt of far NEOH and NWPA. An upper
level trough will pivot through the Great lakes region Monday night
through Tuesday night. The low level flow will start out from
the west-southwest Monday night. The 850 mb temperatures will
fall to around -19C by 12z Tuesday morning. Lake effect snow
showers and some organized bands of LES will develop from WSW to
ENE near the lakeshore of Lake Erie Monday night into Tuesday
morning. These bands of LES will either hug near the lakeshore
zones or clips portions of far NEOH and NWPA. Accumulating and
impactful snowfall will be possible but there is some
uncertainty on the exact locations.
On Tuesday, the main axis of the upper level trough will swing
across the region. Scattered snow showers will be possible for all
of northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania on Tuesday. The trough
swinging through will cause the low level flow to become more
westerly which will cause the Lake effect snow bands to push further
inland into the primary Snowbelt of NEOH and NWPA by Tuesday night.
An area of high pressure will start to nose in from the Lower Ohio
Valley on Wednesday that will cause the wind flow to shift back from
the west-southwest. The lake effect bands will start to shift back
towards along the lakeshore and eventually start pushing northward
out of the snowbelt of NEOH and NWPA by late Wednesday and Wednesday
night. Elsewhere across the area, it will just be cold and mostly
cloudy with a scattered flurry or two.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Another upper level trough will dive across the Great Lakes region
on Thursday with scattered light snow showers for all of northern
Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. There will be some lake effect or
lake enhancement snow showers for the primary snowbelt on Thursday
into Thursday night. That round of LES will be short-lived as
the flow become southerly by Friday morning and upper level
ridging starts to move in. We will have a break in between
weather systems on Friday with a brief warm up through Saturday.
The system that will impact the region will arrive late Friday
night into Saturday with maybe a rain/snow mix.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Mostly VFR conditions expected for today. There are some patchy
light fog of 5sm for a couple sites this morning through 14z.
Clouds will increase from mid afternoon through tonight as a
cold front approaches the region, with light snow showers or
flurries moving in from west to east this evening and tonight.
This will lead to cigs gradually lowering to MVFR and eventually
IFR.
Light S to SW winds of 5-10 knots early this morning will become
SW and increase to 15-25 knots this afternoon before decreasing
this evening and tonight, although downsloping will keep gusty
winds going through tonight at KERI.
Outlook... Non-VFR ceilings will continue Monday and visibility
may drop in snow on Monday into Tuesday and persist in lake
effect snow through Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will increase from the south and southwest today into tonight
15 to 25 knots ahead of the next approaching cold front. The cold
front will move through by early Monday morning with a shift in the
winds from the west-southwest 15 to 25 knots and higher waves for
the central and eastern basin of the lake. A small craft
advisory will likely be needed on Monday for some portions of
the nearshore zone. Winds will continue to remain elevated from
the west 15 to 25 knots through the middle of next week with SCA
conditions continuing. The wind flow will become more
southwesterly by Thursday 10 to 20 knots with an offshore flow.
Ice will continue to expand, accelerating in growth during
towards the middle of next week.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...Garuckas
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Griffin
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 12, 6:04 AM EST ...12z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...---------------
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