IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 8, 6:25 PM EST255
FXUS63 KIWX 082325
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
625 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered to numerous snow showers persist into this evening,
mainly north of US 30 where light accumulations and minor
travel disruptions will be possible.
- Widespread light snow (1-3") Friday into Friday night, mainly
during the PM hours. Slippery travel conditions possible.
- Continued near to below normal temperatures through this
weekend.
- Arctic air and chances for lake effect snow and sub-zero wind
chills arrive for the first half of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025
Scattered to numerous snow showers will persist this afternoon and
evening for locations mainly north of US 30. A potent mid level
shortwave dropping south through the area and an associated lake
enhanced plume/trough the culprit, with embedded lake effect
mesoscale vorticity centers and cloud tops into at least the
lower portion of the DGZ likely supporting brief heavier snow
showers within the trough axis. Additional light accums and
minor travel disruptions remain possible.
Ridging does build in through the column overnight into Thursday.
This will bring an abrupt end to the snow shower activity with some
sunshine anticipated. Enjoy it because clouds and light synoptic
snow move in for Friday and Friday evening in advance of an
amplifying positively tilted upper trough and associated cold front.
Decent isentropic ascent and moisture advection (2-2.5 g/kg in the
85-7H layer) under a potent 150 kt plus upper jet crossing the OH
Valley should support increasing coverage of light snow during this
time. GFS ensemble probs are near 90%, and ECMWF ensemble 60-70% for
a tenth of an inch or more of QPF with the bulk of guidance
generally suggesting a 1-3" type snowfall.
Deep trough will exit east in time for the weekend with dry and
seasonably cold wx Saturday into most of Sunday. A hybrid clipper
system and arctic front arrives late Sunday into Monday with the
next opportunity for a nuisance light snow (WAA driven followed by
frontal forcing). Models then in general agreement with a shot of
blustery/cold wnw winds Monday through Wednesday with chances
for sub-zero wind chills and periodic bouts of lake effect snow
for wnw flow snow belts.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025
The bulk of lake effect snow showers have diminished at KSBN,
with chances persisting at KFWA until 02 or 03Z. The next strong
upper level vort max is dropping south across the southern Great
Lakes tonight, more tied to the nose of a 90 knot upper jet
streak. This synoptic forcing has enhanced the lake effect snow
showers, particularly across west central Lower Michigan.
Slight backing of low level winds and entrainment of drier low
level air from the west should keep the potential of the heavier
lake effect snow showers to the north and east of the terminals
this evening. Passage of this vort max should see an
accompanying decrease in lake effect snow shower coverage
overnight along with scattering low clouds. Conditions should
remain VFR this period outside of the potential of brief cigs
below 3000 feet through 01Z or 02Z this evening at KFWA. Winds
to become south around 10 knots on Thursday as low level ridge
drops across Ohio Valley.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Marsili
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 8, 6:25 PM EST---------------
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