BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 8, 5:56 AM EST351
FXUS61 KBOX 081056
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
556 AM EST Wed Jan 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Very windy and cold today through Thursday as a cold front brings
wind chill values down into the single digits and gusty northwest
winds of 30 to 40mph. Dry weather will continue on Friday, but temperatures will modify a
bit from earlier in the week along with less wind. The most likely
scenario for the weekend is a coastal low pressure passing too far
south of the region Saturday to bring us a major winter storm, but
deliver more of a glancing blow/miss. However, it remains too early
to completely rule out a higher impact storm. Regardless...dry and
cold weather follow early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Point
* Very windy and cold with gusts of 30-40mph and wind chills
values in the single digits through Thursday
Northern stream shortwave and cold front drops south from northern
New England this morning bringing a reinforcing shot of cold
air and gusty northwest winds. 850mb LLJ between 50-60 knots and
good boundary layer mixing will allow 30-40mph wind gusts to
mix down to the surface. There could be some gusts of 40-50 mph,
especially across the Berkshires, for a short period this
afternoon. Confidence was not high enough to issue a Wind
Advisory at this time due to the question of exactly how deep
the mixed layer can get with more clouds than sun today. The
strong NW winds will advect in cold air with highs only in the
low to mid-20s. The feel-like temperature will be much lower
than the actual air temperature, only in the low teens to single
digits. Guidance is mainly dry today due to mid and upper-level
dry air, even with the strong forcing from the shortwave. It is
not entirely out of the question that a few flurries will be
seen around the region this morning, but we are certainly not
expecting any accumulating snow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Gusty NW winds of 20-30mph continue tonight as the pressure gradient
remains tight, sandwiched between high pressure over Eastern Canada
and low pressure out over the western Atlantic. The stratocumulus
begins dissipating with the loss of diurnal heating, but the gusty
winds will make for less than ideal radiational cooling conditions.
Lows will drop into the mid to high teens, with the feels like temp
near 0F.
Another shortwave trough and reinforcing shot of cold air move
through Wednesday, ultimately giving us a rinse and repeat of our
weather from Tuesday. Gusty NW winds of 30-40mph are likely all day
again, but the 40-50mph gusts over the Berkshires look less likely
with a weaker 850mb wind field around 40-50 knots. High temps once
again top out in the low to mid-20s with feels like temps in the
single digits to low teens.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages...
* Temperatures warm a bit by Friday into the weekend.
* Winds decrease on Friday but still breezy.
* Weekend storm looks to likely be a miss or glancing blow to our
south, so while some snow is possible, a high impact storm is
unlikely.
* Dry and seasonable early next week.
Friday...
As the ridge-trough pattern shifts east SNE will be placed beneath
the mid level ridge on Friday, slackening the pressure gradient
which allows the LLJ to exit and winds to weaken through the day.
Even so, the morning will be gusty (20-25 mph), less in the
afternoon/evening. Temperatures moderate as well, as 925mb temps
return to around -2C which allows for highs to make it back into the
mid to upper 30s.
Saturday...
Guidance is even less enthused tonight than it was last night with
the potential for a high impact winter storm in the Saturday time
frame. It is becoming less likely that the northern and southern
stream energy will interact, with the southern stream shearing out
while the northern streams remains less amplified leading to a far
south track. A more likely scenario is that SNE does get a few
inches of snow resulting purely from the passing of the northern
most trough, though moisture would be limited. Ensembles are just
not favorable for this storm system. Compared to last night, EPS
probabilities of 3+inches of snow remain 0% while GEFS probabilities
have dropped from 40-50% last night to 10-20% tonight. Also,
compared to last night, no member lows in the GEFS now pass over the
benchmark; all are south and east (same as the EPS).
Sunday through Tuesday...
Beyond Saturday mid level ridging returns followed by broadly zonal
flow for a dry and seasonable period. 925 mb temps in the -4 to -5C
range will lead to highs in the 30s, though an intrusion of colder
air appears likely toward mid week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Today: High Confidence
VFR with very gusty NW winds of 30-40 knots, possibly higher in
the high terrain. Stratocumulus likely form again today, but
should be in the 5-7kft range.
Tonight: High Confidence
VFR with continued gusty winds of 25-35 knots
Tomorrow: Moderate Confidence
VFR and very windy again. Guidance suggests winds could be even
higher then Wednesday at 35-45 knots.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
VFR with NW wind gusts up to 40 knots.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
VFR with NW wind gusts up to 35 knots.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.
Friday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN.
Saturday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SN.
Sunday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.
Today through Thursday: High confidence.
Gale warnings remain in effect today through Wednesday and may need
to be expanded into Thursday as strong NW sustained winds of 30
knots with gusts of 35-40 knots are likely. Gale warnings were
expanded to Boston Harbor for today only, while Narragansett Bay
remains in small craft through Wednesday. The strong winds will
bring dangerous seas of 5-10 feet across the open waters this
afternoon.
The strong winds and cold temperatures will bring light freezing
spray concerns through Thursday night.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...
Thursday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas
up to 9 ft.
Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of snow.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of snow, chance of
rain. Visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Saturday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of
snow, chance of rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for MAZ002-004-008-009-
012-026.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ230>237-250-251-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BW/KP
NEAR TERM...KP
SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...BW/KP
MARINE...BW/KP
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 8, 5:56 AM EST----------------
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