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994 FXUS64 KMOB 062116AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL316 PM CST Mon Jan 6 2025...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Tuesday Night)Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Jan 6 2025A colder, drier airmass will continue to move over the forecast area behind a cold front that crossed the area last night. Temperatures today have been steady or falling through the day as a result. Still have a cold surge stratus deck over the forecast area at this time, but am seeing breaks as the leading edge erodes. The biggest item to deal with is the temperatures being well below seasonal norms. Tonight, went a bit above MOS due to the stronger northwesterly winds, with mid to upper 20s. Apparent temperatures bottoming out in the 14F-20F range are also expected. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for the entire forecast area tonight. Lighter winds Tuesday night and clear skies will allow for a bit colder low temperatures, ranging from the low to mid 20s north of Highway 84 to mid to upper 20s south to inland from the coast. With the lighter winds, a bit higher apparent temperatures are expected (bottoming out in the upper teens to near 20 north of Highway 84 to low 20s south). Another Cold Weather Advisory will likely be issued for the period later tonight. Not to forget, high temperatures Tuesday are expected to top out in the low to mid 40s north of Highway 84, mid to upper 40s south. /16&&.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Friday) Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Jan 6 2025Arctic high pressure will settle across the TN Valley Wednesdayinto Thursday. This maintains the well below normal and downrightcold temperatures across our area. Highs will once again struggleto climb out of the 40s Wednesday, except for right along the coast that might find a way to get into the lower 50s. Wednesday night will be bitter cold once again with low 20s far inland with upper 20s along and south of I-10. While winds will be lighter Wednesday night with high pressure closer to the region, we will still see wind chills in the upper teens well inland with low 20s at the coast. Therefore, a Cold Weather Advisory will likely be needed Wednesday night/Thursday morning. The weather pattern begins to quickly change by Thursday afternoonthrough Friday as an upper low over the northern Baja ejects east.A surface low will form off the TX coast on Thursday and trackacross the northern Gulf or right along our coastline on Friday.Precipitation will quickly begin to spread into the area from westto east Thursday evening with precip likely late Thursday nightinto the day on Friday. For the most part, this will just be avery cold rain for the region given the strong low level warm airadvection that is forecast to develop to the east of the low.However, there is some potential for a light wintry mix Thursdaynight over the far northern third of the area (north of the Hwy 84corridor) as the incipient airmass will still be quite cold anddry. Forecast soundings indicate that the wetbulb will remain veryclose to freezing from the surface to nearly 700 mb as theatmosphere begins to moisten up. Therefore, would not be surprised if we see some light snow/sleet at the onset of precipitation Thursday evening across the aforementioned areas. As the night progresses, the strong warm air advection should quickly turn all precipitation into rain. However, areas across the far north may be very close to the freezing mark at the surface, and we cannot rule out a brief period of freezing rain there through sunrise Friday. With a 40-45 kt southerly 850mb jet firmly over the area by the day Friday and an increasingly strong warm layer, we should see all rain across the region on Friday. Ifany wintry precip does occur across the far north, accumulations would likely be very minor, if any. However, we will continue to watch the trends in the forecast as a couple of degrees will make all of the difference in no impacts vs. notable impacts. Rain will taper off from west to east Friday evening as the surface low quickly moves east of the region. 34/JFB&&.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Monday)Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Jan 6 2025Cold weather will become reestablished in the wake of the surfacelow by Saturday. Highs on Saturday will once again struggle to get out of the 40s across the vast majority of the area. Saturday night will once again see lows in the 20s. Well below normal temperatures will extend into Sunday. No precipitation is expectedover the weekend. 34/JFB&&.MARINE...Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Jan 6 2025Moderate to strong offshore flow will ease to a light to at times moderate into mid week. A system crossing the area late Thursday night into Friday night will bring moderate to strong, variable direction flow to area waters. Moderate to strong offshore flow follows for the weekend. /16&&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Tuesday for ALZ051>060-261>266. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ALZ265-266.FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Tuesday for FLZ201>206. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for FLZ202-204- 206.MS...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ630>636. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ650-655-670- 675.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
