PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 11, 7:35 AM EST962
FXUS61 KPBZ 111235 AAA
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
735 AM EST Sat Jan 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread snow will transition to scattered snow showers this
morning as a cold front crosses the area. Dry weather returns
Sunday, before another cold front brings scattered snow showers
Monday. Cold and unsettled weather is then expected through the
upcoming week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Snow tapers to scattered snow showers
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Update...
The back edge of the steady snow was located across central
Ohio, just ahead of the 500 mb trough axis. The trough axis will
cross the remainder of the region later this morning and early
afternoon, with snow tapering off from W-E. The 12Z PIT sounding
shows saturation in the dendritic zone, with upstream soundings
showing a decrease in this moisture from the west. Model
soundings indicate a lowering subsidence inversion through the
afternoon, though moisture is still progged in the -10 to -15
deg C zone. This inversion should help limit snow shower
intensity this afternoon.
Previous discussion...
Trough axis will cross the region this morning and will drive a
weak cold front through the area. This will push the main snow
shield eastward, thus bringing an end to the widespread snow.
Weak cold air advection, a transition to northwest flow, and a
strong shortwave, digging toward the exiting trough axis, will
allow for scattered snow shower activity throughout the day. The
snow shower activity should start to become more prevalent over
I-80 and the ridges as the afternoon progresses due to a
shallowing saturation level that will eventually drop below the
DGZ.
Another day of well below normal temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Snow showers end tonight
- Dry and cold Sunday
- Scattered snow showers return Monday
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Scattered snow showers will end tonight as the boundary layer
flow backs to the WSW under building high pressure. Dry weather
is expected on Sunday as the high tracks across the Upper Ohio
Valley region.
A shortwave trough and its associated surface cold front will
advance eastward from the Upper Midwest late Sunday. Clouds
will increase late Sunday and Sunday night in warm advection
ahead of the trough. The upper trough is progged to weaken on
Monday as it approaches and crosses the region. The surface cold
front will cross the Upper Ohio Valley region through the
afternoon. Deep layer moisture is limited, though enough
moisture in the dendritic zone, and convergence along the
front, should result in scattered snow showers.
Temperatures will remain colder than average trough the period,
though highs on Monday could approach freezing in some areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Very cold temperatures by midweek
- Periodic scattered snow showers through much of the week
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Model ensembles indicate a long wave trough will persist across
the eastern CONUS through much of the long term period. Cold
W-NW flow, and individual shortwaves rotating through the
trough, will maintain periodic scattered snow showers across
the region.
Temperatures at 850 mb are progged to be between -18 and -20 deg
C Tuesday. Highs will likely struggle to reach the mid teens
across much of the area, with overnight lows in the single
digits. Wind chills will likely be 0 to -5 through much of
Tuesday, with readings near -10 in the ridges.
The trough should shift eastward by late in the week, with some
moderation in temperature.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Consistent light snow will continue to pull east throughout the
morning hours with cigs and visibility improving some in the
wake behind the trough axis. Probability of MVFR cigs or lower
is 90%, while probability of IFR cigs is generally 10% to 30%,
highest for FKL and DUJ.
Profiles will tend more adiabatic with destabilization aiding
in continued light with with a few gusts through the day with
snow showers maintained for most in northwest flow, most likely
for FKL and DUJ. Chances taper after sunset with slowing upper
flow and a loss of heating, but moisture trapped under the
subsidence inversion will likely maintain low clouds and MVFR
restrictions overnight.
Scattering and lifting of cigs Sunday is expected with high
confidence, with most ports returning to VFR my mid-day.
Outlook...
Restrictions return again Monday with snow showers and a passing
cold front. There is currently a 80% chance of at least MVFR.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for PAZ007>009-
013>016-020>022-029-031-073>078.
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for OHZ039>041-
048>050-057>059-068-069.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for WVZ001>004-
012-021-509>514.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...22
NEAR TERM...WM/22
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...Milcarek
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 11, 7:35 AM EST---------------
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