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095 FXUS64 KMOB 061042AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL442 AM CST Mon Jan 6 2025...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Tuesday night)Issued at 442 AM CST Mon Jan 6 2025Synopsis...A band of showers, ahead of a strong cold front thathas slipped east of I-65, will move out of our eastern zones very early this morning. Behind the front, temperatures will plummet rapidly as dry surface high pressure builds into the region from the west. Highs today should only manage to reach the lower to middle 40s northwest of I-65 (14 to 17 degrees below normal), and the upper 40s to middle 50s to the southeast of I-65 (7 to 14 degrees below normal). Lows tonight and Tuesday night should be around 8 to 12 degrees below normal, dropping into the 20s. Highs Tuesday should only manage to reach the middle to upper 40s, or about 10 to 15 degrees below normal.Cold Temperatures...As previously mentioned, temperatures willplummet behind the cold front, and likely drop into the 20s tonight. This coupled with a strong northerly wind will lead to apparent temperatures in the mid teens to lower 20s overnight intoTuesday morning. Therefore, a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for our entire area from 7pm this evening through 10am Tuesday morning. Similar conditions are expected Tuesday night going into Wednesday morning, so an additional Cold Weather Advisory will likely be needed. /22&&.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)Issued at 442 AM CST Mon Jan 6 2025Cooler/colder temperatures and the continued potential for somepossible wintry weather will remain the primary focus of the extended term forecast period. Nearly zonal flow aloft is expectedWednesday into early Thursday as cold, dry high pressure ridges into our area from the northwest. By late Thursday into Friday models continue to indicate a strong shortwave trough digging deepinto the southern Central Plains states, which will then move eastward across the southeastern states through Saturday. These upper dynamics will aid in the development of surface low pressureover the northwestern or north-central Gulf of Mexico by late Thursday, with the low then generally tracking east-northeast along (or just offshore) the northern Gulf coast through early Saturday. There continues to be some differences among the models as to the exact track and timing of the surface low, and these differences will affect the eventual temperature and precipitationtype forecast for our area later in the week. The GFS is slightly faster and slightly further north with thepositioning of the low as it moves east then is the ECMWF, but thedifferences between the two models have lessened from previous runs. Both solutions have resulted in temperatures that are slightly warmer late in the week than previously noted, but there is still a lot of uncertainty. The NBM low temps for Thursday night into early Friday are still below freezing for the northern portions of our forecast area and this will also be the time the leading edge of the precipitation associated with the surface low will be moving into the area from the west. As such there could bea short period of wintry precipitation over the northern third ofour forecast area late Thursday night into early Friday morning, but it is still a little too early to make any firm predictions onthis. It should be noted that the global model temperatures for that same time frame are well above freezing over our entire forecast area, and its quite possible that wintry precipitation won't be an issue at all. For now, if it does occur we aren't expecting any significant impacts, but it will be something we will continue to monitor and update through the early and middle part of this week. Regardless of any potential wintry weather, it will continue to bechilly (or cold, depending on how you look at it) during the extended period. Daytime highs will not make it out of the 40s formost locations Wednesday through Saturday, except for near the coast where lower 50s are possible. Should warm slightly on Sundaywith highs ranging from the low to mid 50s across the area. The coldest night of the extended period looks to be Wednesday night when lows are expected to be in the low to mid 20s across almost all of the area except for lower 30s along the coast. For now it looks like overnight temperatures will moderate only slightly Thursday and Friday nights (although as I stated earlier the global models indicate more of a moderation than the current NBM forecast). Even with this slight moderation though, we are still expecting lows to likely range from the mid and upper 20s inland to the mid and upper near the coast. Saturday night lows will be about the same, or maybe several degrees cooler. DS/12&&.MARINE...Issued at 442 AM CST Mon Jan 6 2025A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf Waters through 9amthis morning for the potential of frequent gusts of 35 knots, followed by a Small Craft Advisory through 9am Tuesday. The Small Craft Advisory for the Coastal Waters has been extended until 3amTuesday. These strong offshore winds will gradually diminish throughout the day Tuesday. A moderate easterly flow setting up onFriday will shift to an offshore flow behind the next cold front./22&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 45 27 48 27 49 26 50 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 50 Pensacola 51 30 48 31 49 30 51 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 Destin 55 32 50 34 51 32 53 40 / 40 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 Evergreen 45 25 46 24 47 22 49 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 Waynesboro 40 25 45 23 45 21 46 29 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 50 Camden 41 25 43 22 44 20 44 28 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 Crestview 49 26 49 25 50 25 51 31 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Tuesday for ALZ051>060-261>266. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ALZ265-266.FL...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Tuesday for FLZ201>206. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for FLZ202-204- 206.MS...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Tuesday for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ630>636. Gale Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ650-655-670-675. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ650-655-670-675.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
