Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #18 concerning SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY [watch probability: 20%]187
ACUS11 KWNS 060523
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060523
FLZ000-060800-
Mesoscale Discussion 0018
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025
Areas affected...parts of the Florida Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 060523Z - 060800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Strong storms, perhaps isolated severe, may affect parts
of the Florida Panhandle early tonight. A brief tornado cannot be
ruled out.
DISCUSSION...Southerly low-level winds persist well ahead of the
cold front which now extends from central AL into southeast LA.
Surface temperatures and dewpoints are stable or slowly rising along
the Gulf Coast, with offshore observations indicating a theta-e
plume nosing toward the area.
A north-south line of thunderstorms has developed offshore along the
eastern periphery of the instability plume, with northern cells
likely to affect the coast soon. Shear profiles favor supercells,
and waterspouts or brief tornadoes may occur. A watch is not
anticipated at this time due to the limited coastal area most likely
to be affected. However, surface observations and storm trends will
need to be monitored over the next several hours for possible
small-scale tornado risk area as shear profiles remain impressively
strong.
..Jewell/Kerr.. 01/06/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...
LAT...LON 30348694 30498691 30718684 30928647 30768576 30488529
30028500 29678505 29628536 29968561 30218607 30328663
30348694
Source:
Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #18 concerning SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY [watch probability: 20%]---------------
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