IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 6, 10:07 PM EST618
FXUS63 KIND 070307
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1007 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Potential for isolated snow showers and flurries focused across
the northern Wabash Valley this evening and tonight
- Extended stretch of cold temperatures lasting through the entire
forecast period and beyond
- Lows will be near zero Tuesday through Thursday nights in some
areas
- Light snow chances at times with the possibility of minor
accumulations Friday and Saturday
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2025
Some decrease in clouds is occurring across northern portions of the
forecast area this evening, and this decrease should continue across
the eastern half to two-thirds of the area as can be seen on latest
satellite trends.
Lake enhanced clouds will continue across western areas though. Will
have to watch an additional areas of lower clouds across far
northeastern areas of Indiana. If they hold together then forecast
cloud cover will need to be increased in the east with later updates.
Although nothing has been reported, still believe that some
flurries/isolated snow showers will continue to be possible across
the western forecast area thanks to that enhanced moisture from Lake
Michigan. Only tweaked PoPs for now. Far northeast central Illinois
had reports of freezing drizzle earlier this evening, but nothing
has been noted in central Indiana. Have left out mention for now.
Temperatures will depend on how much cloud cover decreases as well
as on depth of snow across central Indiana. With the lake enhanced
band gradually shifting east overnight, this increases the
uncertainty.
Hi-res short term guidance is bullish on single digit temperatures
across the southern forecast area (area with deeper snow pack), but
confidence isn't high enough to make any significant changes at this
time.
&&
.SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2025
Snow has ended across Indiana as of 2pm though a widespread stratus
deck remains. Stratus should persist well into the evening hours as
low pressure pulls away. Stratus may persist longer across western
portions of the area as trajectories trace back to Lake Michigan.
Continued flow off the lake may promote isolated snow showers and
flurries, particularly north and west near Lafayette this evening.
Areas not directly downstream of Lake Michigan may clear up
overnight. Combined with diminishing winds, ideal radiational
cooling potential over a fresh snowpack may lead to very cold
overnight lows. Temperatures into the single digits are possible
south and east of Indy, with higher temps to the west as low stratus
reduces cooling potential there. Any slush or partially melted snow
on the roads may quickly turn to ice overnight.
On Tuesday, stratus likely shifts eastward as flow becomes more west-
northwesterly. This places the best chance of lingering cloud cover
over the eastern half of our CWA. Further west, skies may clear out
before high cirrus arrives in the afternoon, associated with a weak
mid-level wave. No precipitation is expected with this feature.
Winds look to remain light. High temperatures should remain in the
20s for the most part...before dropping rapidly after sunset.
&&
.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2025
Model and ensemble agreement supports high confidence that broad
longwave troughing will be in place over the eastern half of the
country through late week...supporting a continuation of below
normal temperatures with periodic opportunities for a few flurries
or snow showers from time to time as weak waves aloft traverse
through the area within the broad upper trough. Leaned towards the
lower end of guidance on temperatures through Friday as the presence
of such a deep snowpack will have influence on readings...especially
at night if skies clear.
At this point...appears coldest readings will be Tuesday and
Wednesday nights as strong high pressure settles across the Ohio
Valley with winds expected to lighten considerably in addition to
clearing skies. Potential on both nights for lows near zero with
some locations going subzero. The lack of winds overnight is likely
to keep wind chills above the threshold for any excessive cold
headlines but will need to monitor going forward.
Extended guidance has remained consistent on the development of
strong low pressure moving along the Gulf Coast and southeast states
Friday into Saturday. Some of the ensemble members are trying to
enhance deeper phasing of the polar and subtropical jets aloft which
would pull the storm further inland and potentially put parts of the
region into play for snowfall. Still a lot of items to work out but
there is a chance for some light snow accumulations into the Ohio
Valley Friday and Saturday. Stay tuned.
In the wake of that system...strong hints of a reinforcing shot of
cold air to follow for much of next week along with ensuring
temperatures most likely remain below freezing through the end of
the forecast period and beyond. In fact for the week 2 period...all
signs favor a continuation of the cold temperatures with periodic
threats for snow at times. Winter showing no signs of loosening its
grip on central Indiana anytime soon.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 609 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2025
Impacts:
- MVFR ceilings persist, but with occasional VFR conditions
- Isolated snow showers for KLAF/KHUF
Discussion:
A break in the MVFR cloud deck will work its way south this evening
and bring some temporary VFR conditions to KIND/KBMG tonight. During
the day Tuesday, the back edge of the cloud deck may reach most
sites by the end of the period.
MVFR ceilings will likely bounce around 2000FT. An isolated snow
shower is possible at KLAF with flurries elsewhere, but odds of
impacts are too low to mention. Winds will continue to diminish this
evening.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...50
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 6, 10:07 PM EST---------------
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