PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 5, 11:43 PM CST028
FXUS63 KPAH 060543
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1143 PM CST Sun Jan 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A major winter storm is impacting the Quad State region, with
the Winter Storm Warning, Ice Storm Warning, and Winter
Weather Advisory extended until noon Monday.
- Damaging ice impacts are ongoing and are resulting in
widespread travel delays and scattered power outages.
Significant ice, sleet, and snow accumulations are all
expected. A period of freezing drizzle is likely tonight,
followed by additional light snowfall late tonight into
Monday morning with wrap around moisture, especially in
Southern Illinois and Southwest Indiana.
- An arctic cold blast will impact the region this week, with
temperatures struggling to rise above freezing through at
least Thursday. The most impactful extreme cold conditions
peak Wednesday morning with wind chill values between -5 to 5
degrees.
- There remains uncertainty in the potential for another winter
system around next Friday. Snow looks to be the greatest
concern depending on the track of low pressure but it is also
possible the system remains suppressed to the southeast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CST Sun Jan 5 2025
A major winter storm is ongoing across the Quad State region
today, with a broad range of impacts. A Winter Storm Warning,
Ice Storm Warning, and Winter Weather Advisory are in effect for
the northern third, middle third, and southern third, of the
forecast area, respectively.
In the north, morning precipitation took the form of snow,
totaling 2 to 4 inches of snow and sleet along the I-64
corridor, and localized 4 to 7 inch totals in SW Indiana. Late
morning, precipitation switched over to mainly sleet and
eventually mixing with freezing rain. Road conditions are
treacherous. Icing on trees and powerlines has been somewhat
limited this morning but are set to increase.
In the middle area with the Ice Storm Warning, snow/sleet totals
were more in the 1 to 3 inch range, with an earlier transition
to freezing rain. Road conditions deteriorated through the
morning. A surge of heavy precipitation this afternoon,
accompanied by some thunder, has led to a increase in power
outages across the northern counties of SEMO, extending into
Southern Illinois. Temperatures are near freezing at this time
and are expected to remain near freezing for the remainder of
the afternoon, resulting in additional light to moderate
freezing rain.
In the southern Winter Weather Advisory area, precipitation
generally began as freezing rain early this morning, though
heavy rainfall rates and road surface temperatures prevented
icing on roads this morning for this zone. Light freezing rain
through mid-morning increased tree and power line
accumulations, resulting in spotty power outages and tree
damage. For this area, precipitation has generally switched over
to rain for the afternoon hours though temperatures are holding
near freezing in the southern Pennyrile. A line of
thunderstorms has moved through with a few isolated reports of
small hail, possibly sleet. The southern track of the low
pressure has kept afternoon warming limited, preventing earlier
freezing rain from melting much at all. Continued rain and
freezing rain will remain through the early evening as the main
line crosses Western Kentucky with more power outages.
For the late afternoon into the early evening, a large area of
moderate precipitation will continue to advance across the Quad
State, resulting in increased icing in the north with rain in
the south. The last thunder activity in the east should exit the
Quad State in an hour or two. Surface low pressure is located
just southeast of the Missouri Bootheel, a little south of the
model guidance mean yesterday (hence the limited warming in
Western Kentucky today), and is projected to track to the ENE
through the evening, reaching south-central KY tonight. A narrow
area of warming near the TN border is possible as the cold front
crosses Tennessee.
Behind the front, for this evening into the overnight hours, a
dry conveyor belt cuts off DGZ moisture with models agreeing on
this feature. With a lack of ice nuclei, the limited
precipitation will disproportionately come in the form of low-
level moisture, falling as freezing drizzle as surface
temperatures drop into the 20s. Models suggest freezing drizzle
duration will be longer in the north than the south, or at least
have better coverage for what freezing drizzle does occur. In
the Winter Storm/Ice Storm Warning area, this will continue to
add an icy crust to surface frozen precipitation and a primary
concern becomes the effective ice accretion rates freezing
drizzle will add to existing tree and power line icing. Breezy
winds gusting to around 30 mph will further contribute to the
tree/power line damage potential. In the south, freezing drizzle
on otherwise clear roads and sidewalks has the potential to make
black ice conditions treacherous.
Late night, the column saturates and the return of ice nuclei
changes precipitation type yet again to snow. Snow ratios
increase late night into the morning hours Monday with
additional snowfall of 1-2 inches in the Evansville Tri-State,
with lesser amounts and snow ending earlier in the southwest.
Cold air surging in drives temperatures well into the 20s late
Sunday night, allowing for the last round of snow to accumulate
across the Quad State.
Northwesterly winds bring in cooler air, with snow/ice cover
providing additional radiative cooling. Temperatures remain
below freezing most of the week for all but the southernmost
portions of the forecast area. Lows reach their lowest early
Thursday morning, with temperatures near 0 in the northern third
of the forecast area with morning wind chills Wednesday/Thursday
of -5 to 0 degrees. Areas without snow/ice cover will be
comparatively warmer, though still well below normal. Any areas
with extended power outages will have cold weather impacts
exacerbated.
Models remain divided on the track of a late week system as a
trough digs deep in the Southern Plains. PoPs Friday have
increased further into the chance range but remain towards the
low end of model spread. Ensembles are divided as to bringing a
winter storm to the region, or sending most of the snow
potential well southeast of the forecast area towards the
Smokies.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1136 PM CST Sun Jan 5 2025
Drizzle and freezing drizzle at each of the TAF sites will
continue through much of the night; however, it will transition
over to light snow as colder air arrives. Flash freezing of
water on the runways will be possible as temperatures quickly
drop into the low 20s overnight. IFR/LIFR conditions will
gradually improve to MVFR conditions through the day Monday.
Winds will be gust from the north and northwest around 20 to 30
kts through Monday before diminishing Monday evening.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Monday for ILZ075>078-
080>083.
Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Monday for ILZ084>094.
MO...Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Monday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
107-111.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for MOZ108>110-
112-114.
IN...Winter Storm Warning until noon CST /1 PM EST/ Monday for
INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Monday for KYZ007-010-013>016-
018>020.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for KYZ001>006-
008-009-011-012-017-021-022.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...KC
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 5, 11:43 PM CST---------------
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