PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 25, 5:47 PM CST011
FXUS63 KPAH 252347
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
547 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Off and on rain chances continue through the Christmas holiday
weekend.
- Above normal temperatures are expected the rest of the week
and especially the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024
The low pressure wave responsible for ongoing light rain will
continue to lift and open up as it makes its way across the
area. That'll keep high pops in the forecast through tonight,
before a relative taper down before the next increase leading
into the weekend. We expect maybe another quarter inch or so
high side out of this bout.
Another wave moves into play with spiking rain chances late
Thursday night into Friday. It drives the main line of
convection to our south; in fact the models have shifted the
peak axis of heavy rainfall further south and east each of the
runs since yesterday. We could still get a 1/2 to 1 inch swath
across us with that batch, but should be able to handle that
over that course of time, notwithstanding localized higher
totals.
The last pop spike is the final weekend round, although rain
chances never entirely go away during this time period. It too
keeps shifting the heaviest rainfall axis further southward and
eastward, so another 1/4 to 1/2 inch is expected for us, likely
putting most of the area in the 1-2 inch total range, with some
localized higher than 2 inch amounts potentially realized over
the 3-5 day period. Thunder chances also mute further southward
and eastward and while not zero, are pretty low and mainly just
our southern border areas now.
The overall jet trajectory promotes above normal temps lasting
into/thru the weekend, with Saturday still the warmest of the
days with highs in the mid 60s and dew points into the mid 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 547 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024
The MVFR ceiling at KCGI will lift to VFR this evening, as the
rain exits the area. KPAH and KMVN may flirt with an MVFR
ceiling this evening, as well, but the entire area should be VFR
by 06Z. There is some signal for another round of light rain at
KMVN overnight, which could bring a brief MVFR ceiling. After
12Z, all sites should be dry with VFR conditions through the end
of the period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DRS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 25, 5:47 PM CST---------------
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