IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 25, 12:50 AM EST658
FXUS63 KIND 250550
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1250 AM EST Wed Dec 25 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Occasional light rain expected today with amounts generally than a
quarter of an inch
- Clouds and drizzle to persist into Thursday
- Warming trend through the weekend with additional rain likely
Friday into Saturday
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 1250 AM EST Wed Dec 25 2024
Today.
A wet and dreary Christmas Day is expected across central Indiana
today as rain continues to move northeastward with most areas seeing
light rain by daybreak this morning. This rain is associated with a
broad area of isentropic lift extending northeastward into the Lower
Ohio Valley from a low pressure system situated across the Southern
Plains. ACARs soundings over the last hour at IND show a gradual
moistening of the low levels which should allow for precipitation
onset towards 5AM with at least occasional light rain already
falling near Bloomington and points to the southwest. The cloud deck
will gradually continue tho lower through the morning hours as this
saturation deepens.
Total QPF still looks to be around a tenth of an inch with high
confidence in rain being the only precipitation type as temperatures
remain in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Rain chances will be highest
through the late morning hours before the axis of steadier rain
shifts to only southern Indiana towards the mid to late afternoon
with light rain/drizzle to the north. With the very low ceilings and
near calm winds today, there may be brief periods of mist/fog during
breaks in the rain, but not expecting fog to be dense at this time.
Tonight.
There may be some residual fog/low clouds tonight across the
northern portions of the forecast area while across the south some
drier air will be filtering near the surface and limiting that
threat. Expect across the entire forecast area that brief light rain
will continue through much of the night as models continue to show
very weak but broad ascent. Temperatures will continue to be near
isothermal with lows ranging from the upper 30s in the north to the
low to mid 40s in the south.
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 1250 AM EST Wed Dec 25 2024
Wednesday Night Through Saturday.
Flow across the Midwest is expected to stagnate Thursday as the low
pressure across Arkansas associated with the expected weather today
dissipates. This will leave mostly cloudy to cloudy skies across much
of the area along with periods of light rain/drizzle likely for much
of Thursday. Focus then shifts to the next low pressure system as it
exits the Four Corners region and begins to track northeastwards.
Current model guidance is in fairly good agreement on the track of
the surface low moving from Texas northeastward into western
Missouri during the daytime hours Friday with a strengthening LLJ
across the Middle Mississippi Valley Friday. Central Indiana is
expected to sit on the nose of the jet by Friday afternoon with
increasing confidence in a period of moderate to briefly heavy rain.
Total QPF likely in the 0.25-0.75 inch range. There is likely to be
a narrow dry slot with this system that may set up somewhere across
central Indiana, but confidence in the placement of this is low.
A secondary surge of moisture then quickly moves behind the initial
low pressure system with the potential in heavier rain impacting
portions of the Ohio Valley, but there is a lot more uncertainty as
to where this axis of heavier rain looks to set up. Current
ensemble guidance is hinting that the heavier axis will be south of
the Ohio River but details remain quite uncertain. Where confidence
is higher is that the some of the warmest temperatures of the month
look likely for Saturday as highs climb into the upper 50s to low
60s as moisture rich air from the Gulf of Mexico advects into the
area.
Sunday Through Tuesday.
Drier conditions look likely for late Sunday into Monday with some
low rain chances being associated with the uncertainty in timing for
the Saturday system along with a low end threat for another weak
system Sunday night. Focus then shifts to the next system Monday
into Tuesday which is likely to bring at least some additional
precipitation, but a wide spread in model solutions keeps confidence
low on anything more than chance POPs at any given point.
Total QPF over the next week is generally expected to be in the 1-2
inch range which will bring some rises to the main stem rivers of
southern Indiana. MMEFS river ensembles show that a higher end 3-
3.5 inch rain could bring some minor flooding to the lower White
River Valley which will need to be monitored as successive rains
begin to impact the area. The much above normal temperatures that
will have been in place through the long term period will then turn
closer to normal into New Year.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1250 AM EST Wed Dec 25 2024
Impacts:
- MVFR cigs becoming IFR after 10Z, brief LIFR conditions possible
- Frequent MVFR and occasional IFR vsbys through the TAF period with
rain and non-dense fog.
Discussion:
Cigs have dropped to MVFR across the terminals with a gradual drop
to IFR expected through 10Z. Brief LIFR cigs are possible at times
this afternoon and evening. Rain has begun at HUF and BMG with the
expectation of rain arriving at LAF and IND towards 10Z. Vsbys
will generally remain MVFR but occasional IFR conditions are
expected during heavier showers along with periods of non-dense
fog/mist. The heaviest rain will end by 20Z for all but BMG with
light rain/drizzle then continuing through the remainder of the
TAF period. Winds are expected to remain less than 7 kts through
the period with a predominately southeasterly direction.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...White
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 25, 12:50 AM EST---------------
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