LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 20, 5:25 PM CST ...New AVIATION...807
FXUS64 KLIX 202325
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
525 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 323 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2024
Very dry and cold air has made today quite a clear and pleasant
day. Another shortwave in the northwest upper-level flow will
throw down a reinforcing arctic cold front which is currently on
the doorstep of our area. This cold front will cause freezing
temps across most of the northern half of the area north of I-12.
Temps were even bumped down a bit due to the expected cold-air
advection.
Tomorrow, temps are not expected to get out of the 50s as the
arctic air behind the front hangs around. We'll still be
experiencing cold-air advection, so temps were nudged down to
account of that as well. Regardless, it'll be another clear day
tomorrow albeit 10 degrees cooler due to the reinforcing front and
its associated surface high pressure.
Tomorrow night will likely be the coldest night of the weekend for
most areas as the continued cold-air advection affects the area.
Still, only areas along and north of the I-12 corridor is expected
to reach freezing tomorrow night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 323 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2024
Starting on Sunday, the pattern is expected to shift to a more
progressive one. A very weak shortwave is expected to move across
the southern plains, switching us from northwesterly flow to
west-southwesterly flow. This will support warm air to advect
onshore as the surface high shift eastward.
This warming trend is expected to continue throughout next week as
we remain in west to southwesterly flow aloft. A series of troughs
and impulses look to embedded in the flow. However, ensemble
clustering seems to really diverge as we get to Christmas Day and
beyond. There seems to be some agreement that the first
substantial impulse will come on or near Christmas Day. If the
trough track and evolution is just right, we could have some
active weather, but due to the differences in placement and
evolution, confidence is not high on a certain solution yet. So,
just keep and eye out for that at this time.
Another stronger trough looks to come across the southern plains
1-2 days after Christmas, but there's even more uncertainty with
that system, so just be watching out for that one too.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2024
VFR conditions through the forecast period. Northerly wind gusts
in excess of 20 knots are possible overnight at KNEW and KMSY.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 323 PM CST Fri Dec 20 2024
Gusty post-frontal winds will cause advisory conditions overnight
tonight and tomorrow morning. Surface high pressure filtering in
behind it will relax the wind field by tomorrow afternoon, but
cautionary conditions may be needed mainly for our outer waters
tomorrow afternoon through Sunday. After that, periods of rainy
conditions will be likely throughout the week as multiple impulses
come across the area throughout the course of next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 29 51 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 32 56 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 32 55 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 39 54 39 58 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 33 54 33 57 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 32 56 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...JZ
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 20, 5:25 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
