IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 30, 3:35 PM EDT770
FXUS63 KIWX 301935
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
335 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and seasonably warm conditions to dominate through Friday
night.
- A period of showers and isolated storms is expected Saturday
afternoon and evening, with severe weather not expected.
- Summer-like temperatures and humidity will bring increasing
chances of showers and storms for the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024
No weather concerns for the next 36 to 48 hours as high pressure
dominates, with plenty of sunshine and slowly moderating
temperatures.
A weak southern stream disturbance is still expected to move from
the SW US into the Ohio Valley Saturday, bringing an increase in low
level moisture (PWATs pushing 1.5") and lift. Scattered to possibly
numerous showers and a few storms still appear on track, with a Sat
AM arrival depicted by a few of the hi res models, but greater
consensus fro the afternoon and evening hours. Poor shear profiles,
MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG and paltry lapse rates all point towards no
severe threat, but locally heavy rain would be possible.
Slightly drier air arrives for Sunday into early Monday, before a
deepening northern stream trough begins to take shape bringing a
more unsettled pattern through at least mid week. Another
disturbance arrives late Mon into Monday night with chances for a
few showers/storms with it. This feature will bring low to mid 60
dewpoints to the area, setting the stage for much better chances for
showers and storms by the middle of next week as the northern stream
trough deepens with the closed upper low reaching the western Great
Lakes by 00Z Thu. Some differences in timing and also extent of
digging with the trough and subsequent position of the upper low.
Suffice to say, looks like a wet mid week with temperatures
eventually trending back below normal in the wake of the system.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 102 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024
A broad low level anticyclone will continue to be the dominant
feature across the region into Friday. Embedded in this larger
scale anticyclone is a weak inverted low level trough that has
been the focus of IFR/LIFR cigs just west of KFWA this morning
into this afternoon. Diurnal mixing has gradually improved these
cigs to above 2k feet, and remaining primarily west of KFWA.
Would expect any MVFR conditions to be short-lived at KFWA
through 19Z or 20Z. Otherwise, light northeast winds may back to
the north at KSBN later this afternoon as a weak lake breeze
forms. Light winds tonight become light southerly Friday
afternoon between 5 and 10 knots. After diurnal low level clouds
diminish this evening, some low coverage high clouds are
expected on Friday with VFR conditions expected.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Marsili
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 30, 3:35 PM EDT---------------
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