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014 FXUS64 KMOB 162202AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL402 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Tuesday night)Issued at 402 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024Nearly zonal upper flow tonight becomes more southwesterlyTuesday and Tuesday night as an upper level shortwave moves east across the central CONUS. At the surface, riding will continue to extend down across the area from the northwest, with a mainly light easterly to southeasterly low level flow continuing. A frontal boundary will be gradually moving into the southeast CONUSby late Tuesday night and will bring our next chance for rain, but this looks to hold off into the early part of the longer term forecast period beginning on Wednesday. The low level east to southeasterly flow has allowed more moisture to work back into thearea, and as such the overnight fog potential is gradually increasing. The question will be is it fog or low stratus, as low level flow may remain just high keep it similar to last night (when it was mainly low stratus). Models do have a little better signal for fog tonight than they did last night though, and the pattern and time of year is becoming more supportive for this, so have maintained the patchy to areas (over the western zones) of fog for tonight and Tuesday night as well. There could potentiallybe some dense fog in some areas, particularly around the Mobile Bay region and southeast MS, but after coordination with surrounding offices will hold off on a Dense Fog Advisory for now.Depending on how things develop, a Dense Fog Advisory may become necessary for portions of the forecast area later this evening or overnight, and we will continue to monitor for this possibility. Skies will generally remain mostly cloudy through the period, witha few stray showers possible (especially near the coast) but not enough of a potential to warrant any PoPs. This pattern will keep generally mild conditions across the area. Lows tonight and again on Tuesday night will generally be in the low to mid 50s over inland areas and mid to upper 50s closer to the coast and maybe a few lower 60s along the beaches. Highs on Tuesday should be in thelow to mid 70s across the entire area. DS/12&&.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)Issued at 402 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024A change in pattern is one the way as dryer and cooler conditionsarrive late in the week. The only weather comes on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening as an upper level shortwave toughquickly moves across the Ohio River Valley. As this shortwave lifts northeast, an associated strong surface cold front will quickly sweep through the forecast area late Wednesday afternoon through mid-evening. Precipitation chances remain about a 20-30 chance for some areas Wednesday afternoon and evening, with the best chance across areas along and north of highway 84. Dry conditions follow through the remainder of the forecast as a dome of cold and dry high pressure builds into the region in the wake of the front. Highs ahead of the front on Wednesday will be aroundthe mid 70s, and lows Wednesday night dropping off into the mid 40s to lower 50s, except for mid 50s along the coast. Temps trend much colder in the wake of the front with the lowest temperatures occurring over the weekend courtesy of a reinforcing cold front. Lows Friday night through Sunday night will dip into the upper 20sand 30s (about 5 to 10 degrees below normal), with the lowestapparent temps in the 20s. High temps Saturday and Sunday struggleto reach the low to mid 50s, or around 10 degrees below normal. /22&&.MARINE...Issued at 402 PM CST Mon Dec 16 2024A light, mainly east to southeast wind flow is expected over themarine area through mid week. Patchy marine fog may be possible tonight and Tuesday night, especially around the Mobile Bay area and could potentially be locally dense at times. A strong but mostly rainfree cold front moves across the marine area late Wednesday and Wednesday night, with a stronger northerly flow and higher seas expected in the wake of the front. Only hazards will be the potential for dense fog and reduced visibility tonight and Tuesday night, and then winds and waves could be hazardous to small craft by mid to late week as the stronger offshore flow develops. DS/12&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 54 76 55 76 51 66 41 63 / 0 0 0 10 10 0 0 0 Pensacola 56 74 58 74 54 68 45 64 / 0 0 0 10 20 0 0 0 Destin 58 74 61 74 56 69 48 65 / 0 0 10 20 20 10 0 0 Evergreen 52 76 53 76 49 65 38 60 / 0 0 0 20 20 0 0 0 Waynesboro 55 76 53 75 46 63 38 59 / 10 10 0 20 20 0 0 0 Camden 52 74 53 73 46 61 37 57 / 0 0 0 30 20 0 0 0 Crestview 50 77 54 78 51 70 39 64 / 0 0 0 20 20 0 0 0 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...None.FL...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
