JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 21, 6:51 PM EST137
FXUS63 KJKL 212351
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
651 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cold temperatures will last through the weekend, followed by a
warming trend through the rest of the upcoming week.
- There will be a potential for rain at times from Monday night
through Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 219 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
Heating/mixing is gradually leading to clouds breaking up from
northwest to southeast this afternoon as surface ridging builds in
from the west (associated with high pressure passing to our
north). The clouds are becoming more convective/cellular in
nature, and should continue drying up tonight as heating is lost.
With winds being becoming light, it will allow for surface
cooling, especially in valleys.
After temperatures start out in the teens for much of the area
Sunday morning, sunshine should bring us above freezing for highs.
However, the lowest sun angle of the year and no meaningful warm
air advection will make it difficult to warm up beyond the 30s for
most places.
Weak warm air advection will make a return Sunday night as
surface ridging slips away to our east. This will keep
temperatures from dropping much on ridges, but valleys decoupled
from the low level flow will probably drop back to the teens to
near 20. Weak upper level ridging will be passing over ahead of
the next shortwave trough, and some high clouds are likely to
spill through the ridge. However, they probably won't be enough to
significantly interfere with radiating on Sunday night.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
Active pattern expected in the extended, with a series of storms
systems expected to move across the country. Monday will see an
upper level flow pattern that features ridging in place over New
England, most of the eastern seaboard, and most of the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys. Further north, we will see a vigorous shortwave
trough moving quickly through the Great Lakes and into New England
to begin the week. As the northern stream moves by to our north,
it will put down a cold front, that will move southward and then
stall generally along the Ohio River Monday night and Tuesday.
Scattered rain showers will form along this boundary, and will
persist across our area north of the Highway 80/Hal Rogers Parkway
corridor to begin the week. This first round of should finally
exit our area early Tuesday afternoon, as the front weakens and
then moves off to the north.
Another ridge of high pressure in then forecast to move in behind
the northern trough, and bring a period of dry and warmer weather
to the Great Lakes and New England regions Monday night through
Tuesday. Meanwhile, another storm system will be taking shape over
the southern Plains in the form of a wave of low pressure that
will form along the western end of the aforementioned frontal
boundary, or at least what's left of it. This second system will
emerge from the Plains late Monday night, and will move across the
mid Mississippi Valley and across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
Tuesday through Wednesday. This system is then expected to weaken
quite a bit as it moves northeastward into the eastern Great
Lakes early Thursday. We will see several rounds of rain showers
with the second system mid-week. This second bout of rain should
come to and end early Thursday morning. After a very brief
reprieve from rain late Thursday, yet another area of low pressure
is expected to form over the four corners region and then move
quickly across the central Plains and back into the Ohio and
Tennessee Valley regions to finish out the and heading into the
weekend. We will see more rain from this system as it moves
through.
As for temperatures, we will likely see above normal readings each
day and night in the extended, as persistent southerly flow sets
up ahead of each approaching storm system. After starting off the
week with highs in the upper 40s Monday and Tuesday, a steady warm
up into the mid to upper 50s will take place the rest of the week
and into the weekend. Christmas Day could very well be breezy and
rainy. Based on recent trends in the forecast models, confidence
continues to increase for a warmer than normal and wet Christmas
holiday week. No weather hazards are expected in the extended
portion of the forecast at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 651 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
Ceilings have risen to low VFR and broken up west of I-75 and
northeastward to around KJKL. However, another area of more
contiguous ceilings is dropping south from Ohio and should cross
northeast Kentucky (KSYM and KSJS) with low VFR ceilings for at
least a portion of tonight. Southwestward extent of this cloud
deck is less certain but could impact KJKL as well and even KLOZ
for a time. Lingering low clouds should finally dissipate area-
wide during the day on Sunday. Winds will be variable at less than
5 kts through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 21, 6:51 PM EST---------------
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