JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 19, 9:26 PM EST936
FXUS63 KJKL 200226
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
926 PM EST Thu Dec 19 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Light snow accumulations for some locations Friday and Friday
night.
- Temperatures will warm early next week, leading to a possibility
of mainly rain from Monday night through Thursday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 926 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
The low cloud deck has gradually eroded from the southeast and
southwest over the last couple of hours as low-level winds veer
southerly. Flow in the cloud-bearing layer should continue to turn
more westerly over the next several hours, tending to usher the
low clouds eastward before a renewed surge of moisture approaches
from the west toward sunrise. All-in-all, anticipate a quiet
night with variable cloud cover and low temperatures dipping
primarily into the lower and middle 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 530 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
Low clouds are still lingering due to moisture trapped beneath a
frontal inversion. They have started to break up near our western
border and this decrease in clouds may work its way east into the
JKl forecast area this evening. However, the next weather system
is already approaching from the northwest and it will bring
increasing clouds later tonight. The end result is a considerable
amount of uncertainty regarding sky cover tonight, pertaining to
whether or not our present clouds can decrease before the increase
with the next system. The most likely place for an extended period
of decreased clouds would seem to be in our southern counties,
and the forecast is allowing for colder valley temperatures there
due to a better shot at radiational cooling.
The aforementioned system heading into the area is a clipper type
associated with a shortwave trough aloft dropping into the base
of a larger scale mean trough over the eastern CONUS. The surface
low is expected to track just to our northeast as it gets absorbed
by more significant Mid Atlantic coastal development on Friday.
Being on the right hand side of the track would normally not bode
well for winter weather lovers in the area. Latest guidance
suggests that most of the area will initially be too warm for
meaningful snow, and that it could be warm enough for some of the
precip to fall as rain during the day Friday. The precip is
expected to occur near and behind the system's cold front which
will pass during the day. As temperatures cool in the precip, the
first places to drop to near freezing after the precip begins will
be our higher elevations. The significant cold air advection
behind the front will be relatively brief, with neutral or even
warm air advection arriving by Friday evening as deeper moisture
is departing. Upslope flow will persist, but without cold air
advection to reinforce steep low level lapse rates, conditions may
not be as favorable for upslope snow in southeast KY as would
otherwise be the case. Also, as moisture becomes more shallow, it
will not extend as high into the dendritic growth zone favorable
for snow. Considering all these factors, this is a rather complex
set-up. Best estimates are that our southeast counties with
substantial areas above 1500 feet stand the best chance at getting
at least an inch of snow, and a Winter Weather Advisory has been
issued there.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 530 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
The upper level flow pattern to begin the extended will feature a
large trough of low pressure aloft centered over New England and
southeastern Canada early Saturday. A ridge of cold high pressure
will dive southward in the wake of the departing trough on Saturday,
and will bring another shot of colder air to the area, along with
generally dry conditions that will last into the first of the week.
In spite of this, moist northwesterly flow aloft will likely allow
for persistent cloud cover and isolated snow flurries across the
area on Saturday, before things finally completely dry out Saturday
night. Sunday looks to be cold but dry. Temperatures should begin
warming again on Monday, as persistent southerly flow sets up across
the region ahead of another approaching area of low pressure. The
latest model data suggests clouds will be on the increase late
Monday, as low pressure moves in from the west. A few rain showers
may begin moving into the I-64 corridor area Monday evening, with
scattered showers expected across eastern Kentucky late Monday night
and Tuesday, as surface boundary moves into the area. At this time,
it appears that this boundary will slow and perhaps stall over the
region heading into the middle of the week. This will allow rain
showers to persist over the area for several days next week. By
Thursday, a wave of low pressure might form along the western end of
the front, and will further favor isolated to scattered shower
activity across eastern Kentucky into Thursday evening.
After a very cold weekend, with highs in the 30s expected, a steady
warming trend is expected into the middle of the week. In fact,
after highs in the 40s on Monday, we should see a steady increase
each day, with highs in the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday(Christmas),
and maybe even the upper 50s and lower 60s on Thursday. No weather
hazards are expected in the extended at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EST THU DEC 19 2024
Conditions at TAF issuance were mainly MVFR. Some improvement to
VFR is possible overnight, especially the I-75 corridor west, and
perhaps as far east a KJKL. However, conditions will deteriorate
again on Friday as rain and snow develops. Winds will be easterly
veering to southerly tonight at 5 kts or less before turning
westerly and increasing to around 10 kts by late on Friday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 6 AM EST Saturday
for KYZ087-088-113-115-117-118-120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 19, 9:26 PM EST---------------
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