JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 31, 3:23 PM EDT456
FXUS63 KJKL 311923
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
323 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather can be expected today and into Saturday. The next
system will then begin to impact the region starting late
Saturday and continuing into Sunday.
- It will become warmer and more humid with a potential of
showers and thunderstorms continuing into the new work week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 308 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2024
Northerly flow aloft gives way to amplified upper ridging over the
area by this evening, which then gives way to southerly flow aloft
and weak warm advection overnight tonight. A weak slow-moving
shortwave disturbance then moves east up the Ohio River Valley
Saturday into Saturday night bringing increasing moisture and
meager instability.
With upper ridging moving over the area tonight expect another night
of good to excellent radiational cooling conditions, though high
clouds could disrupt that somewhat. Nevertheless, COOP MOS suggests
many sheltered valley locations will fall down well into the 40s,
with the potential for lower 40s at the coldest locations, with
lower to mid 50s on the ridgetops as warm advection begins to
increase and amplify ridge-valley temperature differences.
Warm advection begins to increase in the early morning hours
Saturday, with thickening cloud cover and moisture arriving from
west to east through the daytime hours. Instability is
significantly lacking so lowered the PotThunder grids about 5
percent, enough to keep any mention of thunderstorms out of the
forecast through early Saturday evening. With thicker cloud cover
beginning in the morning in the southwest and not reaching the far
eastern areas until later in the afternoon, highs in the west,
and southwest especially, are only expected to reach the mid 70s,
while highs in the lower to mid 80s are expected in the Big Sandy
basin.
The model consensus continues to delay arrival of precipitation into
and across the forecast area until later in the day Saturday.
Nevertheless, shower and thunderstorm chances increase Saturday
evening into the overnight, especially western and northern parts of
the forecast area, with highest QPF approaching 0.50-0.75 inches
along and north of Interstate 64 and lowest QPF of 0.10" or less
across the southeastern third of the forecast area. With increased
cloud cover and moisture, lows Saturday night look to be warmer
in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 323 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2024
An active weather pattern is anticipated across the CONUS in the
extended, as a series of low pressure systems are forecast to move
through. The upper level pattern will feature weak ridging in place
just offshore of the southeastern US. This ridge will quickly
retreat out to sea, as a short wave makes its way eastward through
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A broad, flattened ridge will move in
behind the departing trough Sunday night into Monday, and will give
us a breif respite from the numerous showers and scattered storms we
will likely experience around the area on Sunday. This ridge may be
strong and persistent enough to keep the weather dry or mostly dry
Sunday night through Monday morning. After that, another area of low
pressure will begin taking shape over the Great Plains, but will be
slow to make a strong eastward push, as the surface ridge holds
fast. We could see enough instability and heating on Monday to allow
for diurnally driven convection, but likely on isolated to scattered
stuff based on the latest model data. As the eastern ridge finally
begins to weaken Monday night into Tuesday, it will drift off to the
east, as the Plains low finally has enough momentum to make a firm
eastward push. A cold front associated with the central CONUS low
will move through the region Tuesday and Tuesday night, and will get
hung over the area through mid-week, as its parent trough
intensifies over southern Canada, and sort of sits and spins up
there for a bit. The best chances for showers and storms look to be
during the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday and Wednesday, as the
front meanders about nearby. By Thursday, the front and its parent
trough should finally make a solid eastward push, as the upper
trough begins move off to east across Canada. We should see numerous
showers and storms move through the area late Thursday, as the front
finally moves through. The rain should steadily taper off Thursday
evening and night, after the front has moved by. Enough moisture and
lift may be present on the backside of the departing upper trough to
allow scattered showers and perhaps an isolated storm to linger over
the area on Friday.
Temperatures look to be a bit above normal on average, with daytime
highs maxing out in the upper 70s to mid 80s most days, and nightly
lows falling into the upper 50s to upper 60s through the period. We
don't anticipate any threats of severe weather or flooding in the
extended at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2024
VFR conditions are expected through most of the period. The only
exception will be localized valley fog during early morning and
late night hours, but TAF sites are unlikely to be significantly
impacted. Light east to southeast winds less than 10 kts will
become light and variable tonight, but then become southerly at 5
to 9 kts after around ~14z beginning from west to east. Lower
clouds and possibly some showers will begin to move toward KLOZ
and KSME at the end of the TAF period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 31, 3:23 PM EDT---------------
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