ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 30, 3:57 AM EDT292
FXUS61 KILN 300757
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
357 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure of Canadian origin will bring dry and cool
conditions today through Friday. An unsettled pattern is
expected from late Saturday through early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Long wave mid level trof was positioned over the Eastern CONUS
this morning. An embedded shortwave will shift off to the south
and east taking any lingering showers with it prior to sunrise.
A band of mid level clouds across West Central and Central Ohio
will give way to mostly sunny sky conditions this morning. As
the trof shifts east a northwesterly flow will develop with
surface high pressure of Canadian origin building into the
Great Lakes.
Outside of the cloud cover - skies have cleared across portions
of Southern Ohio and Northern KY. Fog has formed this morning in
the clear, light winds regime - mainly in river valley locations.
The fog will improve quickly this morning with few to scattered
cumulus clouds developing this afternoon.
Cool temperatures to continue with highs in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. These readings are 5 to 7 degrees below normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure to settle into the area tonight. Any
diurnally driven cumulus clouds will give way to clear conditions
this evening. A favorable radiational cooling setup will be
place with clear skies and light winds. Temperatures to bottom
out in the mid to upper 40s.
Mid level ridge to build into the area Friday offering dry
conditions. Sunny skies will be observed with temperatures
closer to seasonable normal. Highs on Friday will generally top
out in the middle 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Departing high pressure Friday night will have a weak surface low
track northeast, reaching northern Ohio overnight on Saturday.
Combined with s/w energy in an upper trough, showers and
thunderstorms will overspread the CWA from the west on Saturday.
Models diverge Saturday night in how long the surface front takes to
cross, with a subsequent uncertainty ending any post-frontal
rainfall on Sunday. While mainly dry Sunday night, was not able to
discount the later ending time of the precip and continued low
chance pops. Monday will start out dry but again models show
significant discrepancies in a pattern that supports
rain/thunderstorm chances with various passing disturbances. Late on
Wednesday and in the evening had the best consensus on the next
frontal passage and increased probability of showers and
thunderstorms.
After a cool start Friday night with lows 50-55, temperatures will
rise to near normal for the weekend and then rise to be around 5
degrees above normal from 80-85. Overnight lows will be close to 10
degrees above normal on both Monday and Tuesday nights, slightly
less so on Wednesday night.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Long wave mid level trof over the Eastern CONUS. Embedded
shortwave shifting south and east of the area. A few lingering
showers will continue to diminish as they track southeast for
the next couple of hours before dissipating. Due to isold
coverage and decreasing coverage have only have a VCSH mention
in the TAFs.
Mid level cloud deck will gradually erode tonight. This will lead
to river valley fog, which will impact KLUK. Also, expect MVFR
to IFR vsby restrictions at KILN. Vsby reductions will quickly
improve shortly after sunrise with VFR conditions thru the
remainder of the forecast. Some few to scattered cu development
will be possible this afternoon.
Winds remain below 10 kts through the period, shifting from the
NW to NNE this morning.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible late Saturday through
Monday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 30, 3:57 AM EDT---------------
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