ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 15, 12:41 AM EST979
FXUS61 KILN 150541
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1241 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the middle Mississippi Valley will track
northeast into the the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Sunday.
This will result in widespread rain over region tonight into the
first part of Sunday. Additional threats for rain will be
observed Monday as a warm front lifts north across the area and
then again at midweek as low pressure tracks through the Ohio
Valley.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Mid level low pressure system moving into the middle
Mississippi River Valley this evening will track east/northeast
into the lower/middle Ohio Valley and southwestern Great Lakes
overnight. Dynamic lift associated with the low and its
associated moist low level jet will result in widespread rain.
Rainfall amounts will range between a quarter to three quarters
of an inch.
Low temperatures to range from the mid 30s northeast to the
lower 40s southwest.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Mid level shortwave to pivot northeast thru the Great Lakes on
Sunday. Low level jet weakens as it pivots east across the area
Sunday and the steady rain will become more showery by
afternoon. As the deeper moisture shifts east pcpn should
decrease with lingering patchy drizzle as we head into Sunday
evening. Generally expect a lull in measurable pcpn overnight
with moisture returning toward sunrise Monday.
Highs on Sunday to range from the the mid 40s northeast to the
lower 50s southwest. Little diurnal change with lows Sunday
night from the lower 40s northeast to the upper 40s southwest.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front attached to a low pressure system in southern
Canada will approach the Ohio Valley on Monday before moving
through the area on Monday night. Widespread rainfall will occur
ahead of the front through the day on Monday while temperatures
spike into the 50s. Forecast rainfall is exceeding one inch in
many locations which could lead to minor flooding issues on the
usual troublesome area rivers/streams considering rain is also
forecast for Saturday night/Sunday. The QPF is is not overly
excessive since the best overlap of anomalous PWATs and upper
forcing remains north of the Ohio Valley.
Temperatures drop slightly on Tuesday behind the front as dry
weather briefly returns before the next front approaches the
Ohio Valley on Wednesday/Wednesday night. There is more
uncertainty around precipitation type with this second front
since cold weather sneaks in by Thursday. Currently, the
forecast calls for precipitation starting as rain before
transitioning over to wintry precipitation behind the front as a
low passes through. Details and potential impacts are still
difficult to discern with a spread of solutions still possible.
The probabilities point mostly toward a rain event with very
little, if any, snow on the back end at this time.
Colder air returns behind the second system for the end of the
week. Chances for some snow showers exist since disturbances
could move through in the synoptic setup.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An expansive shield of RA continues to overspread the local
area, with VFR CIGs to transition to MVFR, and eventually IFR,
by/around 12z area-wide. The steadier/heavier pockets of RA
will lead to MVFR VSBYs, with the potential for brief IFR VSBYs
in the heaviest activity. IFR CIGs are expected to settle into
the region for the daytime, with some LIFR CIGs possible as
well, especially for nrn sites, by late in the daytime and
toward 06z Monday.
Some patchy southerly LLWS on the order of 40-45kts is expected
through daybreak, with sfc winds generally out of the SE at
10-12kts. These winds will gradually subside by/after 00z to
less than 10kts, going more southerly by the end of the period.
The solid shield of RA will transition to more showery in nature
after 12z, with SCT to numerous SHRA lingering about about
15z-18z. Some patchy DZ may develop after 00z and linger into
early Monday, but confidence was not yet high enough to include
in the fcst at this juncture. IFR/LIFR CIGs, with MVFR/IFR VSBYs
will be possible by 06z Monday amidst patchy BR/DZ.
OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions are likely Monday into Monday
night, and again on Wednesday. Some MVFR CIGs may linger into
Wednesday night.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman/AR
NEAR TERM...Hickman/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...KC
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 15, 12:41 AM EST---------------
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