MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 10, 10:30 AM CST ...New UPDATE...402
FXUS64 KMOB 101630
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1030 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024
10.12Z geo-potential height fields aloft indicate upper trough is
sharpening over the Plains, down into west TX. At the surface,
cold front is dropping southeast into the Lower MS River Valley.
Ahead of these features, an axis of deep moisture is characterized
by PWAT's 1.5 to 1.7 inches was aligned from central GA,
southwest to off the southeast LA coast. Within this axis, there
is a notable band of showers and embedded storms streaming
northeast from our southeast MS zones across the interior of
southwest AL up across the western corridor of Hwy 84. A smaller
band was streaming northeast across the western FL Panhandle.
Mesoanalysis more areal coverage of better instability over the
entirety of the local area (surface based CAPE of 1000-1500 J/KG).
Mid level lapse rates up a smidge since a day ago at 5.5 to 6
C/KM. With the sharpening of the upper trof, bulk shear parameters
have responded and increased with 0-6km west to southwest vector
magnitudes 40-60 kts. 0-1 km helicity values are near 150 m2/s2.
Considering thermodynamic and kinematic profiles, there is
potential of a few strong to isolated severe storms, with a
damaging wind threat and perhaps an isolated tornado. Radar SRM
products have shown isolated weak couplets here and there but
depths are shallow. As the day wears on and ascent overspreads
our area from the west, a marginal risk of severe storms is
outlooked.
Rainfall past 24 hrs has been notable along a narrow
zone from Stone Co. MS to northwest Covington Co. AL where event
total rains thus far has added up to between 2 to 4 inches. This
has primed the area for potential water problems in poor drainage
areas as coverage of showers, embedded storms (with locally heavy
rainfall rates) increase eastward through the remainder of the
day into this evening. Would not be surprised to see urban and
small stream flood advisories being issued or targeted flash flood
warnings where repeated storm motions over the same areas occur in
these areas. /10
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 722 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024/
..New AVIATION...
AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024
Another area of showers with some embedded thunderstorms will be
moving east across the area today. A few stronger storms will be
possible, with gusty winds being the primary threat. IFR,
occasionally improving to MVFR, ceilings are expected through most
of the day and into the evening as periodic rounds of showers and
storms continue. Surface winds will primarily be out of the south
at around 10 to 15 knots, but some higher gusts will be possible
near the coast and also around the stronger storms. DS/12
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 429 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024/
.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday night)
Issued at 429 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024
One last final round of moderate to heavy rain and thunder will
come today with a few storms potentially being on the stronger
side. The main upper trough that has kept us in an active
southwesterly flow will move across the central US and into the
eastern US this afternoon. This will be the final push from this
system as the surface front begins to surge across the area
heading into tonight. One last period of rainfall will be likely
along and ahead of the slowly advancing cold front beginning this
morning into this afternoon. Overall, overall gradual height falls
are expected this afternoon as the pattern amplifies and the
right entrance region of a rather impressive jet streak slowly
works into the area. Showers and thunderstorms will likely begin
to quickly develop along the nearly stationary cold front by mid-
morning. The best period looks to to occur during the afternoon as
the height falls begin to overspread a more established warm
sector with the aid of diurnal heating.
While this trough is rather deep, its more positive tilt and
glancing blow will certainly limit the degree of forcing across the
area. However, the timing of the best forcing with peak heating will
allow for some instability to develop. The overall environment has
certainly improved on some of the higher resolution guidance
especially along and north of highway 84. The question was always
the degree of destabilization and would there be enough forcing
during the afternoon prior to the cold front sweeping through the
area. The trend over the past 24 hours has moved towards potentially
supporting a sneaky severe thunderstorm risk across our northern
portions. The two key factors that peak our interest is that the
thermodynamic environment will be directly driven by diurnal
heating. This means that most of the instability will likely be
packed in the lowest 3 to 4 km which promotes an environment of
relatively shorter updrafts but a lot of vertical stretching and
accelerations if a storm can develop. This tends to promote a more
vigorous updraft that can utilized a rather impressive shear
profile. This combination would likely support at least some
organized convection where forcing is stronger and can help assist
with the thermodynamic environment through layer lifting and
cooling. Given all of this, there is enough in this environment to
potentially support a slightly heightened severe risk mainly along
and north of highway 84 where a damaging wind gust and potentially a
tornado or two cannot be ruled out. This is certainly one of those
situations where the overall confidence in strong to severe storms
is relatively low as a lot of things have to go right to get a strong
storm but if it does comes together the result may surprise some
folks. It will not be a day to get worked up about but certainly a
day to keep a side eye on and just pay attention to how the day is
going. A few things to watch would be to see if the sun peeks
through the clouds of temperatures are running hot or cold compared
to guidance heading into the afternoon. Hot equals more instability
(higher potential) and cold means less instability (lower
potential).
On top of the potential for some strong to severe storms, some
heavier rainfall will be possible. Given a portion of the area saw
between 2 to 5 inches of rain today and storms are expected to
slowly progress eastward with time moving over the same areas, some
localized flooding may be possible throughout the day. This will be
especially true for poor drainage areas and any area that saw
substantial rain earlier. The one saving grace is that we entered
this event still in significant drought and our sandy and clay soils
can handle a decent amount of water as long as it doesn't come all
at once. This will likely minimize the impact of any rain we see
today.
Rain will slowly push eastward as the front moves across the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning likely clearing the area during
the morning. Temperatures will quickly cool in the wake of the front
as skies clear and gusty northerly winds develop on Wednesday.
Temperatures will be mild throughout the day today with highs
climbing into the upper 60s to low 70s today. Temperatures will drop
off quickly behind the front with lows in the 40s tonight and then
bottoming out into the 30s Wednesday night. Highs on Wednesday will
also remain cool with highs only climbing into the 50s. BB/03
EXTENDED TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 429 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024
Nearly zonal upper flow on Thursday gradually becomes more
southwesterly Friday and Saturday as a upper trough moves east
across the middle part of the CONUS. By Sunday this upper trough
will be moving off the east coast into the Atlantic, with upper
ridging rebuilding over our area. A surface high pressure ridge
over our area on Thursday will move east by Friday as the center
of the high moves to the Mid Atlantic states with ridging
continuing to extend into our area from the northeast. But, with
the previously mentioned upper trough moving east, a weak surface
boundary will try to work into the southeast states over the
weekend. This boundary will likely stall to the west of our area,
but just enough return flow moisture could result in some low end
PoPs (20 to 30 percent) across the area Saturday, Saturday night
and into early Sunday. Instabilities will be rather minimal
though, and only showers are expected. Thursday high temperatures
will be on the cool side across the area, mainly in the 50s, but a
gradual warming trend is expected to begin Friday and last through
the weekend and into the early part of next week. Highs on Friday
should be in the upper 50s and lower 60s with highs in the mid to
upper 60s then expected Saturday through Monday (even some lower
70s closer to the coast). Overnight lows follow a similar pattern,
with Thursday night lows in the mid and upper 30s over inland
areas and the low to mid 40s closer to and along the coast. Lows
Friday night through Sunday night will be slightly warmer, with
lows in the mid to upper 40s over inland areas and lower 50s along
the coast. DS/12
MARINE...
Issued at 429 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024
Moderate to strong onshore flow will continue through today
as seas gradually increase ahead of an approaching front. Marine
dense fog continues to impact Mobile Bay as southerly onshore flow
over cold Bay waters should continue through the morning. Showers
and Storms will be likely today through Wednesday morning across the
marine zones before a cold front sweeps through tonight into
Wednesday morning. Strong offshore flow will develop in the wake of
the front with Gale force gusts likely across the open Gulf waters
from 20 to 60 nautical miles. A Gale warning is now in effect for
these conditions with a small craft advisory for the remainder of
the marine zones. Winds will relax slightly by the end of the week
as they turn more easterly to south-easterly. BB/03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 43 55 34 56 39 62 51 67 / 80 10 0 0 0 0 20 30
Pensacola 48 56 38 57 43 62 53 68 / 90 10 0 0 0 0 20 20
Destin 51 60 41 59 45 65 53 69 / 100 30 0 0 0 0 20 10
Evergreen 43 53 31 56 33 60 43 66 / 80 10 0 0 0 0 10 10
Waynesboro 38 54 31 55 35 59 46 65 / 40 0 0 0 0 0 20 30
Camden 39 51 31 52 34 57 43 64 / 60 10 0 0 0 0 10 20
Crestview 46 56 31 58 34 63 44 69 / 90 20 0 0 0 0 10 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM CST Wednesday
for GMZ630>636.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight CST
Wednesday night for GMZ650-655.
Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 3 PM CST Wednesday for
GMZ670-675.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to midnight CST
Wednesday night for GMZ670-675.
&&
$$
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Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 10, 10:30 AM CST ...New UPDATE...---------------
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