IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 10, 2:38 PM EST339
FXUS63 KIWX 101938
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
238 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cold air returns tonight through Thursday as temperatures fall
back below freezing, with snow showers and lake effect snow
showers expected.
- Warming temperatures with chances of rain showers for the
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2024
A cold front has moved through the area today, but dry mid-level air
has kept precipitation from materializing. There is better moisture
to the southeast, and a few light rain showers may be possible from
Jay County into Allen and Putnam counties in Ohio this afternoon.
Colder air will move in tonight and a shortwave riding up from the
southwest ahead of the main upper trough is expected to bring some
light lake enhanced snow showers of the east side of Lake Michigan,
but most of this will stay north of our area. The better chance for
snow will be on Wednesday afternoon ahead of another arctic front.
However, the air mass behind this front will be very dry, so don't
have the highest confidence in excessive snow amounts. Yet
based on current QPF forecasts, 2 to 4 inches with localized
amounts up around 5 inches will be possible across southwest
lower Michigan, where a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued.
Elsewhere, less than an inch to maybe around 2 inches is
expected. The bigger concern will be the gusty winds of 30 to 40
mph Wednesday evening and overnight. This will cause areas of
blowing snow and potential squalls. Additionally, wind chill
values will fall below zero going into Thursday morning. Highs
on Thursday will only be in the teens to low 20s.
Temperatures will start to rebound on Friday as high pressure
builds in from the southwest and highs will rise back into the
30s for much of the area. A closed low then moves through on
Saturday and Sunday with rain and highs in the 40s. Transitory
ridging should bring drier conditions for Monday and
temperatures will remain on the mild side going into the
beginning of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1156 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2024
A cold front is currently moving through our northwest Ohio
counties, with lots of mid and low level clouds in its wake over
Indiana. KSBN just recently dropped to MVFR ceilings, and I'd
expect the same to occur at KFWA this afternoon/evening. Given
that visible satellite imagery shows minimal breaks in the
clouds, I've trended the cloud cover forecast in the TAFs to be
more broken/overcast for today and into the overnight. MVFR
ceilings should persist for much of the TAF forecast period,
although if either of the terminals do get under a break in the
clouds, it's possible that ceilings return to VFR for brief
periods of time. Winds will remain out of the west overnight and
increase tomorrow morning, with gusts to 20 to 25 kts possible
after 12Z Wednesday. It will be dry overnight before chances for
snow showers arrive during the day Wednesday.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to 1 PM EST
Thursday for MIZ078-079-177-277.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM Wednesday to 4 PM EST Thursday for
LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cobb
AVIATION...Johnson
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 10, 2:38 PM EST---------------
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