PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 11, 3:51 AM EST981
FXUS61 KPBZ 110851
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
351 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Rain will change to snow today as a cold front moves east of the
region. Additional snow showers will continue tonight with a
crossing disturbance. Much colder temperatures are expected
tonight and Thursday, with a gradual warmup then expected into
the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Rain changing to snow today
- Wind gusts increasing, with the highest gusts across the
ridges
- Winter Weather Advisory across portions of the WV higher
terrain
-------------------------------------------------------------
Surface low pressure was centered across eastern Lake Ontario,
with a cold front extended south-southwestward through western
PA and WV. A digging upper trough was analyzed across the
central CONUS. The trough will continue to track eastward today,
as another surface low tracks NE along the cold front.
A slow progression to the east is expected with the front until
the second surface wave moves northeast of the region. A change
from rain to snow is expected from west to east in cold
advection behind the front. Ascent should also be enhanced with
the region under the right entrance region of an upper jet.
Wind gusts will increase through the day with pressure rises
behind the cold front, and mixing. Gusts in the lower elevations
could be up to 30 mph, with gusts from 35-45 mph across the
higher terrain, and finally up to 55 mph across eastern Tucker
County WV.
Snowfall amounts should generally be less than an inch for most
areas through late afternoon, though the higher terrain areas
could see 1 to 3 inches. Issued a Winter Weather Advisory for
eastern Preston and Tucker counties in WV, where the highest
confidence exists for advisory criteria snowfall (NBM
probabilities of >70%.) Combined advisory level wind into the
Winter Weather Advisory as well for eastern Tucker county.
Highs will occur this morning, with falling temperatures through
the day.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Scattered snow showers tonight, more numerous in the ridges
where the Winter Weather Advisory continues
- Much colder with single digit wind chills late tonight into
Thursday
- Windy in the ridges
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The upper trough axis will cross the Upper Ohio Valley region
tonight. Scattered snow showers are expected with the trough.
Steep lapse rates and moisture in the dendritic growth zone
could result in brief, locally heavy snow showers, with the NAM
progged snow squall parameter increasing as the trough passes.
More numerous snow showers and gusty winds are expected in the
ridges, with the Winter Weather Advisory continuing.
Boundary layer flow remains W-WSW through Thursday, with little
lake connection north of I 80. This direction is also not
favorable for optimal snow accumulation in the higher
elevations ,though some terrain enhanced ascent is likely
overnight. Total accumulations should be an inch or less for
most lower elevation locations, with 2-5 inches expected in the
advisory area. Wind chills will also drop into the single digits
for most locations by late tonight and Thursday morning, with a
few sub zero readings across the higher terrain.
Snow showers should quickly taper off Thursday as moisture in
the dendritic zone diminishes. Gusty wind should also gradually
diminish through the day as the gradient begins to relax. Expect
little diurnal temperature recovery through the day, with 850 mb
temperatures ranging from -15 to -18 deg C.
Clouds will increase Thursday night as a weak vort max rotates
around the main NE CONUS trough. Dry weather and a warming trend
is then expected Friday and Friday night as high pressure builds
in, and warm advection occurs.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- More seasonable temperatures return
- Widespread precipitation chances return late Saturday through
Sunday
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Model ensembles indicate a trough across the central CONUS will
advance eastward on Saturday, with rain chances increasing late
as the trough approaches. Widespread rain is then expected
Saturday night into Sunday as the the trough crosses the region.
A wintry mix is possible north of I 80 and in the ridges, though
confidence in this mix is low at this time.
A decrease in precip chances is expected Monday, before another
fast moving trough approaches the region with rain chances
returning. Temperatures are expected to return to near
seasonable levels over the weekend, with readings a few degrees
above average by early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cig restrictions will continue through the morning as a slow
moving front crosses the region...followed by a shortwave this
afternoon moving through a deepening NE CONUS longwave trough.
NBM probs are giving 50% to 80% chance of cigs AOB <1kft through
the morning. IFR vis restrictions look likely after rain changes
over to snow and winds pick up(gusts around 25kts) late morning
through the afternoon as cold advection increases. Both the NBM
and HREF show a >90% chance of IFR vis restrictions late
morning and through the afternoon.
Outlook...Dry air begins filtering in by Thursday and will
bring VFR conditions back to the area as clouds erode.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 8 AM EST Thursday
for WVZ512>514.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...88
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 11, 3:51 AM EST---------------
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