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088 FXUS64 KLIX 062119AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA319 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2024...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)Issued at 302 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2024Tonight through Sunday, conditions will be dry overall and cool. Temperatures will be warming through the weekend, but tomorrow morning will still be cold with temperatures north of I-10/I-12 around or just below freezing. These forecast temperatures were lowered off of the NBM to be more in line with model consensus andenhanced cooling near the drainage basins. We have already issued2 freeze warnings for these locations this year so far, so no freeze warning will be issued. For southshore locations, low temperatures tomorrow will be in the low 40s to upper 30s for mostlocations. Temperatures will be warming up through the weekendwith highs in the mid 60s Saturday and mid 70s Sunday with lows onSunday in the mid to upper 40s. MSW &&.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday night)Issued at 302 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2024Sunday night through Tuesday, a frontal system will be movingslowly through the area, enhancing rain chances. Looking at theoverall low instability and shear, severe weather is unlikely. Butthere will be the potential for flash flooding Sunday and Monday,at least, given the slow movement of the system. PW values will be above the 90th percentile for SPC climatology, so rainfall should be pretty efficient. And we are outlooked in a Slight Risk of Heavy Rainfall for Sunday into Monday from WPC. Overall, 3-4inches of rainfall still look likely for this event Sunday throughTuesday with locally higher amounts expected in some areas. Theheaviest rainfall in the latest model trends looks to be duringthe daytime hours on Monday. This could change as we go throughthe next couple of days, and we will be monitoring closely throughthe weekend. Wednesday through the end of the week should be fairly dry overallas this system clears out and temperatures will be warming throughthe end of the week. MSW&&.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS)Issued at 302 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2024VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will persistthrough the forecast period. MSW&&.MARINE...Issued at 302 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2024Winds will be northerly to northeasterly and moderate (10-15kts) tonightthrough Sunday morning. Winds will shift to southerly and moderate(10-15kts) Sunday through Tuesday night. A frontal system will bemoving through the area by mid week, so winds will be elevated(15-25kts) and northerly on the backside of the system, which willlikely mean headlines will be warranted for Wednesday. Winds willease by Thursday afternoon and remain northerly through the end ofthe forecast period. MSW&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 29 56 43 66 / 0 0 20 50 BTR 35 60 49 73 / 0 10 10 40 ASD 30 60 45 71 / 0 0 0 20 MSY 40 59 52 72 / 0 0 0 20 GPT 33 59 45 69 / 0 0 0 10 PQL 29 64 43 73 / 0 0 0 10 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...MSWLONG TERM....MSWAVIATION...MSWMARINE...MSW
