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799 FXUS64 KLIX 012201AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA401 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2024...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 359 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2024The first few days of the forecast will be generally quiet. High confidence in a slightly below normal temperature and dry forecastthrough Tuesday. After Tuesday the forecast gets a little more active and uncertain. As for today it has been a sunny and pleasant day. By 19z most locations were in the lower to mid 60s. Over the next few days we will remain in northwest flow aloft as the L/W trough remains entrenched over the eastern CONUS with the trough axis slowly working closer and closer to the Atlantic coast. This is helping to usher in a reinforcing front which at 19z appears to be just entering the CWA. This front won't bring much in the way of colder or drier air but it will keep the area from moderating and there may even be one more reinforcing cold front late tomorrow as the very cold airmass in Canada quickly starts to surge down the Plains tomorrow and may provide a glancing blow to the Lower MS Valley overnight Monday and into Tuesday. This is where we start to see the forecast begin to diverge in the models but more on that after we get through the next 36 hrs.Our first front will move through tonight but with it not being strong and not necessarily ushering in cooler or drier air and mainly just putting the brakes on any moderation/recovery overnight lows will probably be fairly similar to last night. Overall freezing temps were not quite widespread however the places that did may have the better chance to do so again and did so Saturday morning and with those sites already having hit freezing a few times and the potential of seeing widespread freezing temps we will hold off on a freeze warning tonight. Tomorrow just like the overnight low tonight, temps will be rather similar to todays. High pressure will continue to build in with offshore wind and LL temps remaining steady. H925 temps of 8-10C would mix down to around 17-19C which is in the 60s and see no reason to disagree with that.Tuesday morning lows could be interesting as these could be dictated by that airmass we mentioned earlier. We will see another reinforcing front but how fast can it get here and how much of the airmass it is associated with push into our area. As mentioned the last few days the mid lvl pattern would tend to favor this airmass being shunted off to the northeast of our area however, it is a fairly dense airmass. As it work south-southeast across the Plains it may have just enough momentum to nudge into the our area. The airmass will also move faster as it is surging south during the overnight hours which should help it get over the Ozarks unlike if it was trying to move through that area in the middle of the day. If it can get down here fast enough it could bring another shot of light freezing conditions to the region but the bigger implication could be more on Tuesdays highs and Wednesday mornings lows. Again this would only glance the area so would not expect a great deal of CAA but it would bring another good shot of drier air and that is the problem heading into Tuesday night. If it filters more into our area we could see lows from the upper 20s to near 40 however if this airmass stays just off to our northeast and east and that drier air does not filter into the region lows Wednesday morning could range from the mid/upper 30s to lower 50s. Yes thats right the range of possibilities is about 15-20 degrees and this is only about 60 hrs out. 1 thought here on the forecast, even though it makes more sense for this airmass to remain well off to the northeast we will still remain dry and likely won't see any real recovery till Wednesday during the day. That already promotes a decent shot or radiational cooling overnight. With that we will trend below the NBM deterministic as it tends to try and have us recover too fast. The forecast for now will show temps ranging from the lower 30s to mid 40s but don't be surprised to see some sizable shifts in this forecast if things only deviate slightly. /CAB/&&.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday night)Issued at 359 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2024As for the extended portion of the forecast we have mentioned that the forecast gets a little more uncertain as the models really struggle with how to break down the Pacific coast Rex Blockand whatever works south down the windward side of the Rockies towards northwest Mexico late in the week. With so much uncertainty and where we are located with respect to the L/W trough to the east and chaos over the southwestern CONUS and northwestern Mexico it is hard to deviate much from the latest NBM. Wednesday and heading into next weekend the key is what happens with the closed low that is expected to develop along the US/Mexico border near the Baja region. As the L/W trough axis slides a little more east and that low deepens it will cause us to go from northwest flow to zonal flow to weak southwest flow by mid/late Thursday. This has been somewhat consistent with models suggest for days that the next best chance for rain could be overnight Wednesday and through Thursday but how fast does that pull out and we dry out again? Well, that is becoming more of a question mark now as the models and even the ensembles show that closed low not necessarily lifting out across the southern Plains like before. Now they are suggesting as it tries to lift to the east-northeast another potent s/w coming down the east side of the ridge and south towards the Baja. This would re-establish the closed low over the Baja with the energy from the previous low now shooting more east across the Gulf coast. If that happens it would keep us in a cool and wet pattern with possibly locally heavy rain into the weekend. This is the time of the year the models may struggle especially when we have blocking patterns and large deep L/W's in place. Patterns like this trying to break down can take time and the models will struggle with it. Typically it is better to lean towards a slower and more gradual changing pattern and not the drying out that the models were showing yesterday so it would not be a surprise to see a rather dreary cool wet pattern in place Thursday and through the weekend. /CAB/&&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 1135 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2024Again there are no concerns aviation wise. All terminals willremain in VFR status through this TAF package. /CAB/&&.MARINE...Issued at 359 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2024The reinforcing front will move through tonight with northerly winds becoming re-established. High pressure will build in before sliding east Wednesday while weak low pressure develops along the TX coast. Winds will turn onshore Wednesday, gradually becoming southwesterly into Thursday. The frontal passage Thursday will turn winds offshore again into next weekend. At this time, Small Craft Advisories don't appear to be necessary this week, although brief periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are possible. /CAB/&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 32 62 32 54 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 38 67 39 61 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 34 65 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 46 63 44 58 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 37 64 36 59 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 31 67 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...CABLONG TERM....CABAVIATION...CABMARINE...CAB
