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610 FXUS64 KMOB 031015AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL415 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Wednesday Night)Issued at 415 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024Latest water vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough encompassing much of the eastern CONUS, with an upper ridge building across the Desert Southwest. At the surface, high pressure building into the Tennessee Valley was keeping a light northerly flow across the local area. Under mostly clear skies, temperatures have fallen into the lower to mid 30s, with expected lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s by daybreak. Dry conditions will persist through the day, as high pressure and northwesterly flow keeps drier air filtering across the region. Temperatures will be a bit cold across the area, as highs struggle to climb into the lower to mid 50s. Clear skies and calm winds will continue into the overnight hours, with lows falling into the upper 20s to lower 30s once again tonight. The aforementioned ridge to our west will move eastward tonight, with flow becoming southwesterly during the day Wednesday. Surface high pressure will also move east of the area, with surface flow veering to the south as well. Meanwhile, an upper low will begin to dig from Canada into the Great Lakes region early on Wednesday, with a surface cold front trailing from its parent low well to our north. Several weak shortwaves are expected to rotate around the base of the trough beginning Wednesday night. This, along with the cold front moving into the area, will allow an increase in rain chances from west to east Wednesday night, with the better chances after midnight. Temperatures on Wednesday will be closer to seasonal norms as southerly flow increases, with highs warming into the upper 50s to lower 60s and lows in the 40s to lower 50s. /73&&.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 415 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024 The extended period is expected to be active with severalupper level shortwaves moving across the region. Most notably westart the period with a cold front moving across the area earlyThursday bringing scattered to locally numerous showers that willgradually shift offshore during the day Thursday. In its wake, avery cold airmass moves in with surface high pressure over thearea Thursday night into Friday night bringing temperaturescomparable to our most recent cold spell with lows in the middleto upper 20's inland and lower to middle 30's nearer the coast,and highs in the upper 40's to lower 50's. This cold shot shouldbe relatively brief as our next upper trough begins to approachthe region late in the weekend and surface high pressure shiftseast of the area. A warm advection regime sets up Saturday throughMonday, allowing for temperatures to gradually moderate back tothe upper 60's and lower 70's for highs by Monday, and overnightlows warming back into the lower to middle 50's inland and upper50's to lower 60's Sunday night. With the warm advection comes anincrease in rain chances and thunderstorms during the weekend,most notably as we head into early next week on Monday as a cold front approaches the region from the west. It's too early to pinpoint details as there remains some degree of variance between the global guidance, but a low end threat for severe weather could materialize owing to ample shear, modest forcing, and at least some level of instability over the area, particularly if youaccount for the typical model biases this far out on moisture return. For now, it remains something to watch as we enter a much more amplified and active pattern next week, with more systems of interest following after Monday. MM/25&&.MARINE...Issued at 415 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024No marine hazards anticipated the next couple days. Offshore flowis anticipated to increase and seas begin to gradually build laterin the day Thursday following a frontal passage. /10&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 57 32 64 53 64 36 55 42 / 0 0 0 50 80 20 0 20 Pensacola 57 39 63 55 66 38 57 46 / 0 0 0 30 60 30 0 10 Destin 59 40 64 56 68 40 59 47 / 0 0 0 20 60 30 0 10 Evergreen 52 25 60 45 58 28 52 36 / 0 0 0 50 60 10 0 10 Waynesboro 52 27 61 47 57 28 51 36 / 0 0 10 70 60 10 0 20 Camden 48 25 58 45 56 26 49 35 / 0 0 0 70 60 10 0 20 Crestview 57 26 62 45 65 32 56 36 / 0 0 0 30 60 20 0 10 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...None.FL...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
