JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 6, 4:10 AM EST371
FXUS63 KJKL 060910
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
410 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below normal temperatures continue through Saturday night.
- Temperatures will warm back up over the weekend, with above
normal readings for early next week, along with wet conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 410 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2024
08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure edging into Kentucky from the
west. Despite the drier air that this is bringing at the lower
levels, an area of low clouds continue to affect eastern parts of
the JKL CWA. These clouds are hindering the drop off in
temperatures for those locations. Accordingly, temperatures across
the area vary from the lower 20s in the east under those clouds
to between 10 and 15 degrees elsewhere making this the coldest
night of the fall so far for many outside of the east. Meanwhile,
amid light and variable winds, dewpoints are running in the mid
and upper single digits.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in excellent
agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast.
They all depict the state dominated by a large and deep 5h trough
to the northeast through the first half of the weekend. This will
mean persistent northwest mid level flow with just some benign
energy passing through Kentucky. The strongest of these impulse is
crossing overhead this morning and likely a contributing factor
for the clouds in the east. Toward the end of the period, 5h
heights will begin to increase over eastern Kentucky as the core
of the northeastern trough shifts further away. The very small
spread among the models supported using the NBM as the starting
point for the forecast grids with the main adjustments made to the
temperatures tonight in order to include more terrain details.
Sensible weather features a very chilly start to the day with
temperatures running 15 to 20 degrees below normal into the
afternoon despite plenty of sunshine. Tonight the high pressure
will be passing over the area and likely lead to good radiational
cooling and more in the way of ridge to valley temperature
differences. Milder conditions then ensue for Saturday as
temperatures rebound back into the low to mid 40s amid ample
sunshine and light winds turning more southerly.
The changes to the NBM starting point consisted primarily of
adjusting temperatures per enhanced terrain distinctions tonight.
PoPs were near zero in all the guidance through the period and
kept that way.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 352 AM EST FRI DEC 6 2024
The extended period will start off quiet, as high pressure remains
in place over the region Saturday night and Sunday. This pattern
will change dramatically, however, as a shortwave develops over the
southern Plains, and moves into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys
Sunday night and Monday. This system will bring widespread rainfall
to eastern Kentucky to begin the new work week. After this first
system quickly exits to our east late Monday, another more potent
area of low pressure is forecast to take shape over the Four Corners
region, and will push another wave of low pressure out of the south
central Plains and through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys again
Tuesday through Thursday. The southern stream system will phase with
a potent northern stream system that will be moving through the
Great Lakes regions. These two systems will bring another bout of
widespread precipitation to our area mid-week. This round of
precipitation will likely involve both rain and snow Tuesday night
into Wednesday. The wintry mix will eventually transition over to
all snow late Wednesday and Wednesday night, as much colder air
spills into the region behind a departing area of low pressure and
surface cold front.
Temperature the first half of the period will start off well above
normal, as persistent southerly to southwestern flow sets up across
the region during the passage of the first area of low pressure.
After this system passes by to our east, a much cooler air mass will
settle over the region, and will bring much cooler temperatures to
eastern Kentucky. After seeing highs in the 50s and lower 60s Sunday
through Tuesday, a big pattern change is in store. As the second
area of low pressure moves through, temperatures will only top out
in the upper 30s and lower 40s Wednesday and Thursday. Nightly lows
will start off quite warm as well, with minimum readings in the 40s
Sunday night and Monday night. After that, we will see a few nights
in a row with lows falling into the 20s and low to mid 30s across
the area, as much colder air spills in from the northwest. We will
monitor the first low pressure system for locally heavy rainfall and
any hydro issues that could arise from that. With the second and
much colder system toward mid-week, we will keep and eye on the
potential for hazardous driving conditions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST THU DEC 5 2024
VFR conditions are prevailing across all TAF sites and will likely
prevail through the TAF period. A low-VFR stratus deck may
occasionally intrude into the area from the north and northeast
through 15z Fri, and for this reason have introduced TEMPO groups
at KSYM and KSJS for the first several hours of the TAF period.
These clouds have cig heights between 3500 and 4500 ft. Passing
high clouds may move across the area tomorrow afternoon but
nothing of consequence. Light and variable winds will persist
through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 6, 4:10 AM EST---------------
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