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933 FXUS64 KMOB 020942AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL341 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Tuesday Night)Issued at 341 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2024The axis of a broad upper trough will continue to pivot eastward today, with northwesterly flow bringing a reinforcing shot of colder air across the Deep South. At the surface, high pressure will slowly build southeastward through the day, with an arctic airmass settling across the region. Given the northerly flow through the vertical column, dry conditions will persist for the next couple of days. Despite mostly clear skies, temperatures will remain below seasonal norms, as highs only warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s this afternoon. Even colder conditions are anticipated for Tuesday, as highs struggle to rise above 50 degrees over our interior counties. Further south, expect temps to warm into the lower to mid 50s, still roughly 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Meanwhile, radiational cooling conditions will prevail tonight and again on Tuesday night, allowing overnight lows to drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s. /73&&.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 341 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2024 Upper troughing continues to prevail across the eastern CONUS withseveral shortwaves rounding the base of the trough during theperiod. This will allow for an active weather pattern with severalopportunities for rain and varying temperatures day to day. Theperiod starts off with a warming trend from prior days as highsmake it into the upper 50's to lower 60's and lows Wednesday nightonly fall into the middle to upper 40's inland and lower to middle50's nearer the coast. This is thanks to surface high pressureshifting east and allowing for warm advection to begin across thearea in advance of the next cold front. This will also be when ourfirst shortwave moves across the area with scattered to widespreadshowers and thunderstorms, primarily during the overnight hours.The front will likely finish working its way across the area by Thursday afternoon. Ahead of the front, temperatures should manageto reach middle to upper 60's, with interior locations seeing upper 50's to lower 60's as cold advection begins to work its way into the forecast area.There remains a large spread in the temperature forecast forThursday night into Friday. This is largely dependent on theevolution of another subtle southern stream shortwave and howpotent the antecedent cold airmass is that advects into the areathe day prior. Some model guidance suggests the shortwave will exist and move across the area while others suggest the shortwave will be negligible with zonal flow prevailing over the gulf coast states. This will drive whether or not we have more extensive cloud cover in addition to what kind of advection (warm or cold) we will see as we go into Friday. If the shortwave is weak and/or does not exist, expect a pretty cold Thursday night into Friday night. If it does exist, then temperatures would likely be a bitwarmer than currently forecast. For now, will continue to advertise lower to middle 30's inland and upper 30's to lower 40'snearer the coast for Thursday night and Fridays highs in the upper 40's to lower 50's inland and middle 50's nearer the coast.The next upper shortwave of interest begins to move across thegulf coast states over the weekend. There remains substantialvariance on the evolution of this feature, with the globalshandling the subtropical and polar upper jets quite differently. For now have taken somewhat of a middle ground of scenarios for the forecast calling for isolated to scattered rain and thunderstorm chances during the weekend, with best chances likely being Sunday. Overall we should see a warm advection regime set upinto the weekend allowing for temperatures to warm back into the middle to upper 60's for most locations for highs by Sunday. MM/25&&.MARINE...Issued at 341 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2024A light to moderate offshore flow is expected through early thisweek. Light onshore flow returns midweek. A cold front moves intothe marine waters by late week bringing a moderate to strong offshoreflow. MM/25&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 63 36 57 34 65 54 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 40 70 20 Pensacola 63 40 57 39 63 55 69 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 50 30 Destin 63 43 58 40 64 55 71 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 50 30 Evergreen 61 30 52 27 60 44 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 40 60 10 Waynesboro 61 30 52 28 60 47 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 70 60 20 Camden 58 28 48 25 58 44 58 30 / 0 0 0 0 0 60 60 10 Crestview 63 32 56 27 63 44 68 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 60 20 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...None.FL...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
