LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 6, 3:05 AM EST582
FXUS63 KLMK 060805
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
305 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Cold this morning with temperatures in the low to mid teens.
* Warming temperatures are expected through the weekend. Highs in
the 50s by Sunday.
* The next chance for widespread precipitation comes as rain Sunday
night into Monday. Around 1 to 1.5" of rain is expected across
much of the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 304 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2024
High pressure will continue to build into the region from the west
promoting clear and dry conditions through the short term. Ample
radiational cooling this morning has allowed temperatures to drop
into the low-mid teens and some cool spots in the single digits.
Since winds are light, wind chills will only be a few degrees cooler
than the temperatures. The morning commute will be cold, but not
nearly as crisp and windy as Thursday morning.
The center of the high pressure will move just south of the region,
allowing winds to slowly back to a WSW direction through the day.
This will also allow high temperatures to hover around or just above
the freezing line this afternoon. The dry airmass and efficient
atmospheric mixing will keep RH in the 25-35% range this afternoon.
Dry air, light winds, and sunny skies will help the cold
temperatures today feel a bit more pleasant.
Tonight, another night of ample radiational cooling and light winds
will bring temperatures down to the upper teens and low 20s
by Saturday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 304 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2024
Saturday - Sunday Afternoon...
Quiet stretch of weather for the second half of the weekend as
surface high pressure and NW flow aloft keep us dry. Temps will
continue a steady moderating trend during this stretch with highs
back in the 40s for Saturday, and then back above normal into the
mid 50s by Sunday.
Sunday Evening - Wednesday...
High confidence in widespread rainfall overspreading the region
Sunday evening into the first part of Monday. This will occur of a
southern stream disturbance that will be able to draw on a good
amount of deep moisture as it is slow to eject out of the SW CONUS.
PWATs are projected to be in the 90th percentile, and NBM has 55-75%
probabilities of rainfall amounts over 1". LREF probs are a little
bit lower in the 30-40% range, but these values have come up just a
bit in the past 24 hours, so the trend is slightly wetter in that
sense. Overall, WPC QPF ranging mostly in the 1 to 1.5" range for
the event seems pretty reasonable given the corresponding
probabilities. Heaviest rainfall currently looks to be across
southern KY, with lighter amounts tapering the farther north you go.
Still don't have any thunder mention with this system as forecast
soundings look pretty stable.
The widespread rainfall pushes off to the east along with the strong
low level jet core by midday Monday. This will end the widespread
precipitation, however lingering showers are expected to remain
across the area. Surface cold front will be slowly sliding through,
and there are low confidence indications of additional embedded
shortwaves traversing through the the deep SW flow pattern over our
area. Overall the later Monday through Tuesday night time frame is
lower confidence in exactly how it will play out, however there is
higher confidence that lingering rain chances are needed, especially
with the main trough axis still back to the west. Any additional QPF
through this time frame should be fairly light, and may see a brief
change over to some frozen precipitation by late Tuesday night/early
Wednesday morning. At this point, anything associated with that will
likely be non-impactful given the fairly mild temperatures that had
just occurred ahead of fropa. Temps do drop off pretty notably
behind the cold front on Wednesday with highs back in the upper 30s
and low 40s.
Wednesday Night - Thursday...
Looks like a drier stretch through this time as the amplified trough
axis slides through and high pressure builds in behind the surface
front. Looks like a pretty big east coast storm ahead of the full
latitude trough, but right now we look to be mostly spared given the
late phase of that trough axis. Still can't rule out an earlier
phase that could get us more into the game, but right now a fairly
decent deterministic consensus that most of the activity stays east
of us. Cold conditions continue into Thursday with highs only in the
30s for most.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2024
Summary: VFR and light winds
Discussion: High pressure over the region is allowing clear skies to
persist. There is a small patch of BKN-OVC clouds around 3-5kft
currently over CVG which will drift over LEX and RGA in the next few
hours. Otherwise, clear skies will prevail through the TAF cycle.
Calm to light winds out of the WNW will slowly back through the day,
landing in a SW direction by 0Z.
Confidence: High on all elements
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRM
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...SRM
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 6, 3:05 AM EST---------------
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