IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 5, 2:43 AM EST400
FXUS63 KIND 050743
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
243 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Wind gusts of 40-50 mph early this morning slowly diminishing
to 20- 35 mph later this afternoon.
- Subzero wind chills as low as -10 late through this morning
- Warming trend to the low to mid 50s by Sunday with rain chances
increasing Sunday night and Monday
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 243 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2024
The arctic front has blasted through Central Indiana during the
overnight hours with wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, thundersnow,
and plummeting temperatures. Latest satellite imagery shows rapidly
clearing skies behind the front as extremely dry air is rapidly
pushing through the state. Dew points have dropped nearly 30 degrees
in some spots over the past few hours and will continue to drop near
or even below zero in portions of North Central Indiana.
Temperatures will continue to fall through the rest of the morning
with upstream observations indicating temps could fall as low as 10
degrees. Sustained winds of 20-30 mph combined with temperatures
this cold are resulting in wind chill values in the zero to -10
range, with the coldest locations likely in North Central Indiana.
A Wind Advisory remains in effect through 7AM EST for all of Central
Indiana. While wind gusts to 60 mph have since subsided some, winds
will still be gusting in the 35 to 50 mph range through early this
morning. Latest ACARs soundings show very steep lapse rates with
winds mixing down from almost 3km agl. The low level jet will
diminish throughout the day which in turn will allow for surface
wind gusts to slowly drop as well. Still expecting wind gusts in the
20 to 35 mph range to continue into the late morning and afternoon
hours after the Wind Advisory is allowed to expire. Sub zero wind
chills will persist through much of the morning, rising only into
the single digits and low teens during the afternoon.
With such a cold airmass incoming and persistent cold air advection
aloft, temperatures will struggle to rebound during the day, despite
sunshine. This may be one of the coldest days of the season thus far
with highs only in the mid 20s. High pressure becoming centered just
SW of the region tonight will keep conditions cold and dry, allowing
temperatures to fall once again into the lower teens, and
potentially upper single digits in wind sheltered and low lying
spots.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 243 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2024
Friday Through Monday...
Modified Arctic high pressure will start off centered over the Ozarks
early Friday will settle southeast through the weekend into early
next week, as an upper ridge builds over the Mississippi Valley,
late weekend, ahead of an approaching southern Plains system. Return
flow to the north of the high will allow temperatures to quickly
moderate with well above normal afternoon highs possible Sunday .
and Monday. 50s are possible, especially by Monday before
temperatures fall back in the wake of cold front. It will also allow
for deep moisture to move into the area late in the weekend into
early next week. The moisture will interact with impulses ejecting
northeast in the fast southwest flow aloft, ahead of a synoptic
trough. In addition, a nearby anti-cyclonic 100+ jet streak and low
level jet pointing into northern Kentucky with near maxing moving
average PWATS will add gasoline for a potential soaking rainfall.
Models and ensembles are having some temporal and spacial
differences but overall clustering is decent and supports widespread
rain showers with the best coverage and QPF Sunday night into late
Monday with over an inch storm total possible.
Instability progs suggest the best instability won't make it this
far north, but would not completely rule out thunder and or strong
convection, given the synoptic pattern, Gulf return flow and jet
streak interaction potential.
Monday night through Thursday...
The cold front looks like it will be moving through Monday night or
so with another downward trend in temperatures but mostly dry
weather.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1244 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2024
Impacts:
- Strong WNW wind gusts to 45 kts through 09z, diminishing to 20-30
kts by this afternoon
Discussion:
Polar front has pushed through Central Indiana this evening with
wind gusts in excess of 45 kts at times. Upstream observations
indicate a slow diminishing trends in winds through the rest of the
morning hours. West northwest wind gusts to 45 kts should continue
for the next few hours then begin diminishing and remain in the 20-30
kt range through this afternoon.
Satellite imagery shows mainly VFR conditions behind the front as
strong dry air advection is working to clear out any remaining cloud
cover.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057.
Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for INZ060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...CM
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 5, 2:43 AM EST---------------
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