LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 25, 4:56 PM CST ...New AVIATION...084
FXUS64 KLIX 252256
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
Issued by National Weather Service Mobile AL
456 PM CST Mon Nov 25 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 231 PM CST Mon Nov 25 2024
Some areas, specifically in the northwestern areas, are seeing
light isolated showers this afternoon in the warm air advection
regime. Expect this to be the most activity for the rest of the
daylight hours as the main frontal support remains off to our
northwest across NW Louisiana. The front is expected to move
through the area overnight tonight between midnight and sunrise.
Although we get the forcing along the front, the weakening of the
upper-level forcing and the front passing at diurnal minimum, PoPs
were bumped down to match HREF to only mention a slight chance of
rain along the front, mainly north of I-10/12. Temps were also
bumped down to match closer to HREF for Tuesday morning due to the
cold air advecting behind the front.
Cold air advection remains over the area on Tuesday, keeping us
dry for tomorrow. Due to the cold air advection, temps were bumped
down slightly to account for that. Tuesday will be more of a
transitional day, especially towards the end of the day and
overnight as the next trough makes its way across the central
CONUS.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 231 PM CST Mon Nov 25 2024
By Wednesday morning, the front that will pass through tonight
will lift north across the area and bring warmer and more humid
air to the area. This influx of warm and humid air will cause high
temps on Wednesday to be over 10 degrees above average for this
time of year, yuck! Thankfully, this will only last for one day as
another stronger front comes through the area during the day
Thursday. High temps really depend on the timing of the front and
the rain coverage, so you could get compressional warming ahead
of the front and cause temps to be 6-8 degrees above normal. This
seems most likely across the southern parts of the area as the
consensus is that the front will make it through the northern half
of our area before peak heating during the day.
In terms of rainfall on Thursday, a few factors are playing into
us seeing more rain with this front versus the one tonight:
stronger front, more upper-level support, and a favorable diurnal
time. PW is also expected to be in the 1.6-1.7 (above 90th
percentile), so this aids into the support for better rain
coverage on Thursday. In terms of active weather, shear will be
enough as 0-1km SRH looks to sit right above 100 m2/s2 and 0-3km
SRH will be in the 150-200 m2/k2 range. Thermos look decent as
well with MLCAPE values around 1000 j/kg. One concern is a 700mb
subsidence inversion that will likely disrupt updrafts if that is
around. This will all mainly be something to keep an eye on as
the high-res CAMs get into range over the next couple of days.
Once the second front sweeps through the area Thursday night, much
cooler air will filter in. The trailing cold-air advection, surface
high pressure, very dry air will keep us cool and dry beyond
Thursday. We will see our first chance of freeze in SW MS Friday
night as the cold air continues to filter into the area. Besides
that, the cold air looks to stick around afterwards and keep
temperatures 8-10 degrees below normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 455 PM CST Mon Nov 25 2024
VFR conditions will prevail through this evening. A cold front
will move through the forecast area late tonight into early
Tuesday morning. A broken band of mainly light to moderate showers
will accompany the front. Any rain will be brief in nature. Low
end MVFR to IFR cigs will develop immediately in the wake of the
front. A gradual return to VFR conditions is likely by midday
Tuesday into the afternoon due to daytime mixing and the front
pushing further south of the area.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 231 PM CST Mon Nov 25 2024
A series of frontal passages will occur this week, with the first
one being tonight. Tonight's front will be relatively weak and
will not bring high winds or seas, or even rain.So, benign
conditions will remain until Thursday when a stronger front makes
its way through the waters. Behind the front, expect at least
advisory conditions as winds will be in excess of 20kt and waves
are expected to be around 5-7 feet in the open gulf waters Friday.
As surface high pressure filters into the area Saturday and
beyond, winds and seas will relax back below advisory conditions.
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JFB
MARINE...JZ
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 25, 4:56 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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