LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 5, 6:10 PM EST181
FXUS63 KLMK 052310
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
610 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Cold Thursday night and Friday morning with temperatures in the
low to mid teens.
* Warming temperatures are expected through the weekend, with the
next chance for widespread precipitation coming as rain Sunday
night into Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2024
It's a bright and sunny day, though strong cold air advection in the
wake of an early morning cold front has helped keep our temperatures
below freezing today. Brisk northwest winds have been gradually
easing as the sfc pressure gradient relaxes, which has helped our
wind chills rise out of the single digits.
For tonight, continued clear skies and NW light winds are to be
expected as a Canadian sfc high filters into the Midwest. We should
have good radiational cooling take place, which will support our
overnight temperatures to drop into the low to mid teens. Though
with the light winds, wind chills will not deviate from the
temperatures much.
Sfc high pressure will be centered over the Mississippi River
tomorrow, which will keep dry and clear weather for our area. With
sfc winds becoming more west-southwesterly tomorrow, we could end up
seeing our sfc temps rebound to the freezing mark tomorrow
afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2024
Synopsis and Confidence...
Two key features for determining the long-range forecast are upper
lows currently centered over southern AZ and in the north central
Pacific Ocean. Both of these features will become open troughs as we
get to Sunday and then will help to keep troughiness over the
Midwest early to midweek next week. Confidence is fairly high based
on model ensemble member uniformity through Sunday, but then the
speed of the systems brings some divergence in model solutions as we
get to next work week, so confidence steadily drops through midweek.
Upper level lows over the desert southwest are notorious for not
moving as fast as models think they will.
This Weekend...
With that thinking in mind, broad high pressure over the TN Valley
and Deep South Friday night should mean at least one more night with
some low temperatures in the teens. The center pushing toward the SE
Atlantic coast should mean increasing southwest winds during the day
Saturday, bringing a nice warmup back to the region. Expect readings
to get closer to normal values by Sunday. That southwest flow
however will pull in Gulf of Mexico moisture, especially deeper
moisture as the upper low moves into the Central Plains. By Sunday
afternoon, we'll see rain chances increase from SW to NE across the
region.
Sunday Evening - Monday...
Despite timing differences among model ensembles, rain chances
become categorical (75%+) Sunday night and Monday, though the bulk
of the heaviest rains should come that night. Precipitable waters
increase to around 1", which is around the 90th percentile for this
time of year, per SPC Climatology. Euro EFI show an unusual rainfall
event, with a few members touching toward the high end of past
events centered around this date. Based on decent agreement in the
12Z deterministic solutions, have pretty good confidence that we
will see an areawide 1-1.5" soaking rainfall from this system.
Severe potential, if any, should stay well south/southwest of our
vicinity. Bulk of the heavier moisture will push out as the day goes
on, but with the surface frontal zone stalling somewhere in our
vicinity, cannot rule out some additional showers developing through
the day.
Monday Night - Tuesday Night
Least confidence part of the forecast, as location of the stalled
frontal boundary will determine just who gets additional rain
chances as the bigger upper trough from the northwest moves ino the
central U.S. This one will have more cold air with it, so there
could be a zone with wintry precipitation on the back side of any
precip shield associated with the stalled boundary.
Wednesday - Thursday
Temperatures will be more likely to flip back to below normal this
period. The cold front should get a good push eastward again, so it
should move the precip shield far enough away from the region as
well. Broad troughiness over the eastern half of the country could
allow for additional small-scale disturbances to cross the region.
Moisture will be limited, but in colder scenarios, that doesn't
always mean a dry forecast...as we saw earlier this week. Blended
model forecast keeps in a low-chance (~20%) for measurable precip
Wednesday with an even lower chance Thursday. Not a ton of
confidence to change that at this point, but wouldn't be surprised
to see that come up with the northwest flow in place.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2024
VFR conditions with unlimited ceiling and vis through the valid TAF
period. NW winds have backed off to less than 10 kt and will
continue to diminish this evening, going light/variable or even calm
by around midnight. Sfc high pressure currently near Omaha will
build in and settle west-to-east across Kentucky by Fri afternoon.
Light west winds are expected just to the north and west of that
feature.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RAS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 5, 6:10 PM EST---------------
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