MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 29, 5:35 PM CST ...New AVIATION...913
FXUS64 KMOB 292335
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
535 PM CST Fri Nov 29 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 PM CST Fri Nov 29 2024
VFR conditions prevail through the TAF cycle. Gusty northerly
winds persist along the coast through the overnight hours. Winds
relax and turn northeasterly by Saturday afternoon. 07/mb
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 PM CST Fri Nov 29 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 329 PM CST Fri Nov 29 2024
A highly amplified longwave trough will continue to encompass the
eastern half of the United States over the weekend while surface
high pressure builds south into the southeast states on Saturday.
This will maintain the chilly temperatures across the forecast area.
Gusty north winds will begin to diminish tonight over land areas as
the pressure gradient slowly weakens. However, there is likely to be
a bit of breeze through most of the night, especially closer to the
coast. In addition, high level clouds will likely be on the increase
tonight from the west. The combination of the cloud cover and some
wind causes uncertainty in just how cold we get tonight. It appears
the MOS is likely a few degrees too cold in this scenario, so stayed
closer to the NBM. This yields lows in the upper 20s well inland
with mid to upper 30s along and south of I-10. Will maintain the
current Freeze Warning as is, but there is some uncertainty on if we
will reach freezing across the inland portions of the coastal
counties.
Temps stay below normal tomorrow as we will not make it out of the
50s for highs. Tomorrow night has the potential to be colder than
tonight given we will see light winds with the surface high
overhead. However, there is still the potential for high level
clouds to interfere with radiational cooling. Therefore, blended NBM
with MOS guidance and this once again results in upper 20s far
inland with mid to upper 30s closer to the coast. If the high clouds
thin out sufficiently, then lows temps will likely be a few degrees
colder. A Freeze Warning may be needed again for tomorrow night, but
we will see how tonight pans out regarding the freeze before making
a final decision for tomorrow night. 34/JFB&&
SHORT THROUGH LONG TERMS...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM CST Fri Nov 29 2024
A passing upper level shortwave moves a reinforcing front south over
the Southeast Sunday into Sunday night, bringing another round of
cooler and drier air to the forecast area. A mean upper level trough
over the eastern Conus begins to move off/fill Monday, allowing
surface high pressure over the Plains to move over the eastern
Southeast by Wednesday, restoring onshore flow to the Southeast
by Wednesday night. Isentropic upglide sets up over the cool
airmass over the Lower Mississippi River Valley Wednesday night,
then shifts slowly east over the northern Gulf coast as a second
shortwave passes. Even with precipitable h20 values rising to around
1.5", isolated to scattered rain showers with a few elevated
thunderstorms (due to limited instability) return for Thursday and
Friday.
High temperatures see a downturn from around 60 to near 65 Sunday to
low 50s north of Highway 84 to upper 50s south of I-10 on Tuesday.
From there, with southerly flow returning to the Southeast, high
temperatures rise back into the mid 60 to around 70 for Thursday and
Friday. Low temperatures see the same drop and rise, falling from
upper 20s to upper 30s Sunday night to the low 20s well north of
Highway 84 Monday night to low/mid 30s south of I-10. Will have to
monitor for any Freeze WWAs depending how the current WWAs in the
Near Term pan out. Low temperatures increase beginning mid week,
rising into the upper 40s well north of Highway 84 to near 60 along
the coast Thursday night.
Even with the northerly flow shifting to southerly mid week,
the magnitude of the onshore flow is not expected to be high
enough for significant swell, keeping the risk of rip currents low
the end of the week.
/16
MARINE...
Issued at 329 PM CST Fri Nov 29 2024
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 9am Saturday
morning for Mobile Bay, MS Sound, and the Gulf waters. Have also
issued a Small Craft Advisory for the Pensacola Bay System through
6am Saturday. Strong offshore flow will persist through tonight with
north to northeast winds 20-25 kt. Seas over the Gulf waters will be
3-7 ft, highest beyond 20nm. Winds diminish and seas subside over
the weekend as surface high pressure builds across the region. A
light to moderate offshore flow will persist through early next week
with the strongest winds being Monday night over the Gulf waters
(close to 15kt). 34/JFB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 34 58 34 62 35 59 32 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 38 59 39 62 38 59 35 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Destin 41 59 42 64 42 61 38 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 29 58 27 61 30 55 26 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 31 56 28 60 29 55 26 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Camden 28 55 28 57 27 51 24 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 32 59 30 64 31 59 27 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Saturday for
ALZ051>060-261-262.
FL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Saturday for
FLZ201-203-205.
MS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Saturday for
MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ630>632-650-
655-670-675.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for GMZ634.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 29, 5:35 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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