JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 29, 10:43 AM EDT663
FXUS63 KJKL 291443 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1043 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible through this
evening, but most areas will remain dry.
- Below normal temperatures can be expected through the rest of
the work week. But temperatures will then warm over the weekend.
- After a period of generally dry conditions, it will become
unsettled starting over the weekend into early next week, with
chances of showers and thunderstorms returning.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1043 AM EDT WED MAY 29 2024
Surface boundary making its way across eastern Kentucky this
morning. Upstream showers are rotating southward through Ohio and
will likely impact portions of the forecast area this afternoon.
Updated the forecast package to increase PoPs slightly, mainly in
the north and also to increase sky with what appears to be a more
substantial cloud field than originally anticipated. No other
changes made other than to bring hourly grids in line a bit with
current surface observations.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT WED MAY 29 2024
Patchy valley fog should quickly burn off this morning. Otherwise, a
series of shortwaves will drop south into the area today, creating
showers and thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon and evening. Weak
instability during the period should prevent much in the way of
anything becoming severe, and bulk of convection should dissipate by
this evening as the shortwave moves east, and from loss of daytime
heating. Thursday morning will start out with areas of fog or
stratus, but the remainder of Thursday should be dry, and cooler, as
surface high pressure builds in from the north, with a northerly
flow in place.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT WED MAY 29 2024
Friday looks to be continued dry, but increasing heat across the
area as an upper ridge builds across the area. Dry air in place will
allow for a cool mornings both Friday and Saturday morning, with low
temperatures dipping into the 40s across much of the area Friday AM,
with a quick diurnal warming trend during the day. Showers and
thunderstorms return to the area later Saturday and Sunday as a low
pressure wave moves across the area. There could be a bit of a break
in the precipitation at the start of next week, but at this point,
the potential for multiple weak waves moving across the area looks
to be likely, and have maintained a chance of pops into early
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 619 AM EDT WED MAY 29 2024
Patchy river valley fog across the area, particularly in the Big
Sandy River basin, will dissipate after 12-13Z. Otherwise,
mainly VFR conditions. After 15Z, westerly to west-northwesterly
winds will become gusty at times, with occasional gusts in the
teens, becoming light after 23Z. In addition, isolated to
scattered showers and storms Wednesday, mainly after 16-18Z
through 00Z Thursday will create brief MVFR conditions. Areas of
fog or low stratus expected to develop after 08Z Thursday,
creating MVFR/IFR conditions.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...SL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 29, 10:43 AM EDT---------------
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