MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 26, 5:35 PM CST ...New AVIATION...294
FXUS64 KMOB 262335
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
535 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024
An IFR/MVFR cloud deck over much of the area gradually erodes
through this evening, then IFR/MVFR conditions with patchy fog
look likely to redevelop late tonight. The patchy fog dissipates
during early to mid Wednesday morning then a mix of a MVFR ceiling
and VFR conditions prevails for the rest of the day. Winds become
calm or light northerly tonight, then a south to southwest flow at
5 to 10 knots develops on Wednesday. /29
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday night)
Issued at 346 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024
An active pattern will persist through Thursday as a
series of shortwaves pushes across the eastern US. The first
shortwave has moved through earlier today pushing a cold front
through the area this afternoon. This boundary will push offshore
and stall across our coastal waters as shortwave ridging develops on
Wednesday. Moisture will quickly return to the area in advance of
the next shortwave trough entering the Great Lakes region on
Wednesday night. This shortwave will be the primary weather maker
during the period as it pushes a cold front into our area on
Thursday into Thursday night. As moisture surges northward,
scattered showers should develop early Thursday morning mainly near
the coast. By the afternoon, the upper jet will begin to nose into
the area and a period of subtle height falls should overspread our
area from the west. This will allow for more scattered to likely
showers and storms to develop along an ahead of the slowly advancing
cold front. The positive nature of this trough and rather
progressive movement of the upper jet typically struggles to support
anything in the way of strong to severe storms. However, with the
timing of the frontal passage likely occurring at diurnal maxima and
some cooling aloft may result in enough instability to support some
stronger storms during the early afternoon. Deep layer shear will
certainly be sufficient for some organized storms and a marginal
wind threat may develop with stronger storms. Small hail may also be
possible given rather sufficient instability in the hail growth zone
and strong deep layer shear. The best chance for stronger storms
will be across our northern and western zones along and north of
highway 84 where upper forcing is strongest. Rain will slowly drift
southeast and weaken by the evening as the front slowly moves
offshore. BB/03
LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024
Several upper level shortwaves move through a mean upper trough in
the Extended. With a dry airmass over the Southeast in the wake of
Turkey Day's system, the biggest item to deal with is a fluctuation
in temperatures as several reinforcing fronts move over the forecast
area in the wake of the shortwaves passage. The fluctuations in high
temperatures range from the mid to around 60 on the high side to low
to mid 50s with upper 50s along the coast on the low side. Freezing
temperatures are expected along and north of the Highway 84 corridor
of the forecast each night in the Extended except for Saturday
night. The freezing line shifts south several of the nights to near
the I-10 corridor. Freeze Watches/Warnings will likely be needed in
the future. Am not expecting Hard Freeze conditions at this time,
but continue to monitor.
With the northerly flow through the Extended, the risk of dangerous
rip currents is expected to be low.
/16
MARINE...
Issued at 346 PM CST Tue Nov 26 2024
A weak cold front will continue to push offshore tonight as
winds return to offshore tonight. A stronger cold front sweeps
through the area on Thursday with showers and thunderstorms
accompanying the front. Onshore flow will strengthen ahead of the
front Wednesday night, with moderate to strong northerly winds
developing in the wake of the front Thursday night into Friday. Seas
will build in response over the open Gulf waters. A Small Craft
Advisory will likely be needed by the end of the week. BB/03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 52 73 65 74 45 58 34 58 / 0 0 10 50 20 0 0 0
Pensacola 57 74 67 76 49 59 38 58 / 0 0 10 50 20 0 0 0
Destin 60 74 69 77 51 62 41 60 / 0 0 20 50 30 0 0 0
Evergreen 46 73 63 72 43 55 29 57 / 0 0 20 60 20 0 0 0
Waynesboro 46 72 61 69 40 55 29 55 / 0 0 40 60 10 0 0 0
Camden 44 71 61 68 40 53 28 53 / 0 0 40 60 10 0 0 0
Crestview 51 76 64 77 46 59 31 60 / 0 0 10 50 30 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 26, 5:35 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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