LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 19, 6:10 PM CST ...New AVIATION...315
FXUS64 KLIX 200010
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
610 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024
W weak cold front has moved east of the area this afternoon. This
has pushed the rain and storms east of the region. Cancelled the
Flood Watch early as rain moved out just a bit faster. So far, not
much of a difference in temperatures, in fact it may be just a bit
warmer with temperatures in the 80s this afternoon. Winds,
however, have changed to a more northerly direction. That said,
we'll be watching a secondary stronger cold front...the front that
will switch off summer light and bring forth winter light (aka
autumn) move into the region Wednesday morning. With it, there
will be a decrease in temperatures and increase in northerly
surface winds, especially on the south shore near the lake front
where some gusts may approach 30mph or so. With the FROPA, it will
be a dry one, mainly because there will be no way to recover in
terms of boundary layer moisture. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024
Going into the long term period, below average temperatures will
be the primary focus. The region will remain in dry northwesterly
flow aloft and the H5 broad scale trough will continue to amplify,
slowly at first then continue to dig down the Atlantic Coast.
Around our area, heights and thicknesses drop...as do our
temperatures...which will be the main forecast concern going into
the upcoming weekend. Temperatures across the board will struggle
to get into the middle 60s late week and into Saturday during the
day. Overnight lows in the upper 40s across the south shore and
upper 30s along the I10/12 corridor/north shore will be common.
The colder locations (Pearl and Pascagoula River Basins) could
drop closer to freezing where perhaps some frost may develop? We
shall see, but given the warm bias in the raw consensus guidance,
did opt to drop overnight lows a degree or two with the coldest
night being Friday night/Saturday Morning. Going into the 2nd half
of the weekend, temperatures will begin to increase gradually as
surface return flow develops allowing for a steady uptick in both
temps and humidity values. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 609 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024
Lingering MVFR cigs at eastern terminals should lift and move out
over the next hour or two with VFR conditions setting in and
prevailing for the remainder of the period. In the wake of a
strong cold front, northwest winds will strengthen around or just
after sunrise, and will become gusty during the afternoon as cold
air advection sets in.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024
Hazardous marine conditions will continue. As the front moves
through early Wednesday there could be a bit of a lull in winds,
however, winds will quickly increase behind the front to 20-30kts
at times. Seas will also build in the more extreme cases to
around 10ft over the open Gulf later Wednesday or early Thursday.
Eventually, high pressure will begin to slide eastward and the
pressure gradient will relax allowing for winds and seas to
decrease to a more favorable ranges. (Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 53 68 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 56 72 41 69 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 56 73 37 66 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 61 72 48 66 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 58 73 42 66 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 58 78 36 69 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Thursday
for GMZ530-532-534-536-538.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ550-552-555-
557-570-572-575-577.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Thursday
for GMZ532-534-536-538.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ552-555-557-
570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...RDF
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 19, 6:10 PM CST ...New AVIATION...---------------
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