BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 28, 2:04 PM EST782
FXUS61 KBOX 281904
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
204 PM EST Thu Nov 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure begins to move out this evening taking the rain and
snow with it. Drying out Friday with seasonable temperatures, then
colder but mainly dry weather follows this weekend and into
much of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Rain and high elevation snow is ongoing this afternoon as moisture
continues to be pulled north into New England around a deepening
surface low pressure. Surface observations and mesoanalysis indicate
the center of the low just south of Connecticut at this hour;
it will continue over Cape Cod and then out into the Gulf of
Maine tonight. This will bring an abrupt wind shift this evening
as winds turn to the west and northwest rapidly advecting in
much drier air; PWATs over southeast MA will drop from ~1.15" at
21Z to 0.3" by 03Z. Precip exits western CT around 5-6 pm and
eastern MA by 6-8pm. Colder air arrives with the NW winds and
this may pose a concern for interior locations where lingering
moisture from today's rainfall could freeze up and cause
hazardous road conditions overnight. Lows will drop into the
upper 20s to low 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points...
* Mostly dry with sun on Friday though some spot showers are possible
Friday surface high pressure nudges in setting up a mostly dry day
with a mix of clouds and sun. At the mid levels cyclonic flow
continues with a broad trough over the Great Lakes, but lack of
moisture should keep any rain or snow showers spotty in nature.
Given the cooler airmass overhead highs will be several degrees
colder, in the upper 30s and mid 40s before a much colder night, in
the 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Point:
- Colder but mostly dry pattern takes hold into next week
Large scale pattern is expected to feature a deep and persistent
trough over East in response to blocking ridge which takes hold over
Pacific NW. There isn't much in way of downstream blocking but
trough should get reinforced by passage of several weak short waves
around base of trough.
This pattern favors dry weather overall with below normal
temperatures. Highs will struggle to reach 40s most of next week
with lows in teens and 20s. Blended guidance does show some low
(chance) PoPs for rain or snow showers around Cape Cod and Islands
in response to ocean effect but most of this should end up over
coastal waters SE of Islands. It is possible much of region sees
some light snow/flurries by Thu as a weak warm front lifts through
New England but at this point it does not look very impactful.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18Z update...
This afternoon: High confidence on timing, moderate confidence
on CIGS and rain intensity.
IFR/MVFR in RA. RA exiting from west to east between 21 and 00z.
Tonight: Moderate Confidence
CIGS rapidly rise to MVFR/VFR as rain comes to an end and winds
turn west.
Friday and Friday night: High Confidence
VFR with decreasing west winds.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in timing, moderate confidence
in CIGS and rain intensity.
Rain comes to an end between 23z-01z tonight with rising CIGS
to MVFR/VFR after 02-04z. Winds shift SSW as the center of the
low passes over in the afternoon. Winds then shift WNW as the
low lifts out of the region and become gusty up to 30 knots.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Rain comes to an end after 22z with CIGS lifting to MVFR/VFR
shortly there after.
Outlook /Saturday through Monday/...
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance FZRA.
Saturday: VFR. Breezy.
Saturday Night: VFR.
Sunday: VFR. Breezy.
Sunday Night through Monday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Friday night...
Low pressure passes over the waters this evening. As the low
pressure tracks across the SE Massachusetts (18-00z), winds shift
from south to east to northeast over the course of the day with a
few gusts up to 35 kt. Conditions may approach Gale Warning
criteria, but thinking the 35 kt gusts will be marginal, and perhaps
not quite as frequent. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect.
While winds should diminish some Friday, seas will take longer to
subside across the outer coastal waters.
Outlook /Saturday through Monday/...
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance
of rain.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain.
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain, slight chance of snow.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ232-233-235-
237-251.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ250.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BW/JWD
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...BW/JWD
MARINE...BW/JWD
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 28, 2:04 PM EST----------------
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