JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 1, 2:20 PM EST686
FXUS63 KJKL 011920
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
220 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Lingering light snow tapers off this afternoon.
- Temperatures will remain below normal for the next week, with
only a small potential for light precip at times.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1240 PM EST SUN DEC 1 2024
The steadier snow is coming to an end through the eastern parts of
the CWA so will be able to drop the remaining counties in the
advisory shortly. Otherwise, have mainly updated to shrink the
PoPs from the northwest through evening and also fine tuned the
sky cover. In addition, the latest obs and trends were included in
the T/Td grids. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and
web servers along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 1038 AM EST SUN DEC 1 2024
Have trimmed additional counties from the Winter Weather
Advisory. The only counties where the advisory is still in effect
are Pike, Johnson, Floyd, and Knott.
UPDATE Issued at 956 AM EST SUN DEC 1 2024
Have begun trimming counties from the Winter Weather Advisory from
northwest to southeast based on radar data and hi-res model
output. With today being one of the busiest travel days of the
year, will likely evaluate and continue trimming counties on a
near-hourly basis.
UPDATE Issued at 825 AM EST SUN DEC 1 2024
Light snow continues over most of the area early this morning.
Temperatures are a little above freezing in many of our most
southern counties (aside from ridges), which will prevent or limit
accumulations there. The back edge of the snow is about to enter
our Bluegrass counties from the northwest, and this will progress
southeast during the day. Except for some brief enhancement, the
snow is quite light, with only slow accumulation.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 510 AM EST SUN DEC 1 2024
A large, deep upper trough remains over the eastern CONUS, with
multiple impulses rotating through it. One of these is bringing us
our current minor winter weather event. There is also a very weak
(and still weakening) surface low/wave over KY in association with
it. Based on latest trends and model data, have removed a southern
tier of counties from the WSW. Snow is still ongoing over our
northern counties and starting to enhance again, and the WSW is
allowed to continue there. However, it looks like it may be able
to get dropped at some point today before its set expiration at
7 PM. Additional accumulations from early this morning into the
day in the WSW area should generally be an inch or less.
As the system exits, cold/dry air advection will kick in on the
back side. After perhaps a brief spurt of snow showers in the cold
air advection, clouds will decrease late today and tonight. If
valleys can decouple from the flow during the night, lows would be
well down into the teens there. Otherwise, most places can still
expect readings far below normal in the upper teens and lower 20s
by early Monday morning.
Another impulse rotating through the upper trough may affect the
area on Monday. Models have been trending further south with its
effects in successive runs. At this point, our southwestern
counties stand the best chance (only 30% POP) of seeing some light
snow, but if southward trends continue, that POP could lower.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM EST SUN DEC 1 2024
The long-term period begins Tuesday with northwesterly flow aloft
and surface high pressure behind a deep upper trough moving off the
Mid-Atlantic coast. Highs will struggle to climb above freezing
Tuesday afternoon given the origins of the flow coming from NW
Canada. Excellent radiational cooling conditions are expected
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, which will support lows well
down into the teens in the sheltered valleys to lower 20s toward
the ridges.
Warm advection increases through the day Wednesday ahead of the next
trough and associated cold front which will cross the area Wednesday
night. Expect increasing temperatures ahead of the front Wednesday
into Wednesday night followed by cold air returning Thursday through
Friday. This system will also bring precipitation chances, mainly in
the form of rain ahead of the front, followed by cold advection
upslope snow on the back end, though it should be noted that the
Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI-P) indicate little
to no chance of reaching the Minor Impacts threshold.
Toward the end of the period, warm advection begins to slowly
increase late Friday through Saturday. Lows Friday night could be
quite chilly especially in the valleys under good to excellent
radiational cooling conditions, but temperatures and precipitation
chances increase through Saturday morning with a weak low pressure
system crossing the region during the day, followed by temperatures
falling back into 20s for lows Saturday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST SUN DEC 1 2024
Initial conditions ranged from IFR to VFR, varying generally from
northwest to southeast across the aviation forecast area. The
limitations are due to lingering snow and low clouds. The back
edge of the precipitation is about to exit forecast area finally
clearing out of the far southeast. Improvement to VFR will occur
as in it wake, with all areas expecting to be VFR by 22Z. VFR
conditions then last through the remainder of the period. Winds
will be generally from the west at 5 to 10 kts through the rest of
the day before slackening to light and variable tonight - picking
up again from the west at around 5 kts on Monday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 1, 2:20 PM EST---------------
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