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818 FXUS64 KMOB 261057AFDMOBArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Mobile AL456 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2024...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE....NEAR TERM...(Now through Wednesday)Issued at 456 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2024A cold front pushes across the area this morning bringing with itisolated to scattered rain showers. Best rain chances will exist west of the I-65 corridor through daybreak, quickly dwindling eastof the I-65 corridor into the mid to late morning hours. Dry weather returns as cold air advection takes root over the area in the wake of the front along with slightly cooler temperatures. We quickly warm back up as a much more notable upper trough moves towards the region Wednesday night, bringing increasing rain chances late Wednesday night.Temperatures in the wake of the cold front this afternoon will remain on the warm side topping out in the middle to upper 60s west of the I-65 corridor and lower to middle 70's to the east.There remains some question marks on just how much we can cool off tonight as cold advection weakens and begins to transition back to a warm advection regime by early Wednesday. On paper, it looks like an idealized radiational cooling scenario tonight with light winds and surface high pressure moving in. With that said, there is the potential for high- level clouds to temper things along with a lingering low level stratus deck, particularly nearer the coast. For now, I will forecast lower 40's over the far interior tonight with middle to upper 40's along the I-65 corridor, and lower to middle 50's nearer the coast. Wednesday will be warm again with a majority of the forecast area seeing middle 70's for highs. Wednesday night will be markedly warmer than the preceding night, with lows only falling into the lower to middle 60's for all locations. A Low risk of rip currents continues through Wednesday before becoming a Moderate risk of rip currents Wednesday night. MM/25&&.SHORT AND LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)Issued at 456 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2024A strong cold front will move across the area during the day onThursday with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected aheadof the front. Depending on the degree of instability that developson Thursday, an isolated strong storm cannot be ruled out. The best chance looks to be along and north of highway 84 where forcing will be strongest and lapse rates will be able to steepen ahead of the front. Storms would be capable of maybe some small hail and damaging winds.Behind the front, temperatures will quickly crash and a rathercold period will be setup through Monday with highs dipping intothe 50s and lows getting as cold as the upper 20s to low 30s. Wewill have to monitor into the weekend for the potential for frostand freeze products for areas that have not already seen theirfirst frost or freeze. 03/13&&.MARINE...Issued at 456 AM CST Tue Nov 26 2024A weak cold front moves across the marine waters today shifting winds to be out of the north at around 5 to 10 knots. Winds quickly shift back to onshore at 10 to 15 knots for Wednesday evening, perhaps nearing 15 to 20 knots at times Wednesday night. A much stronger cold front moves through Thursday ushering in a moderate to strong northerly flow Thursday night into Friday around 15 to 20 knots. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for this period if the stronger winds materialize. Seas also build to 3 to 5 feet over the open gulf waters behind the front. A light to moderate offshore flow will persist into the weekend. MM/25&&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...Mobile 71 53 75 65 74 45 59 38 / 30 0 0 20 40 20 0 10 Pensacola 75 57 75 68 76 49 60 41 / 30 0 0 20 30 30 0 10 Destin 75 61 76 70 78 50 63 43 / 20 0 0 20 30 30 0 10 Evergreen 69 45 75 63 71 41 57 32 / 30 0 0 20 40 20 0 0 Waynesboro 65 45 75 61 69 40 56 32 / 0 0 0 40 30 10 0 0 Camden 66 42 74 61 68 39 53 30 / 10 0 0 40 40 10 0 0 Crestview 74 53 77 64 78 44 61 33 / 20 0 0 20 30 30 0 0 &&.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AL...None.FL...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$This product is also available on the web at:www.weather.gov/mob
