JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 29, 10:35 PM EST396
FXUS63 KJKL 300335 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1035 PM EST Fri Nov 29 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A quick moving system will bring the chance for light snow
accumulations Saturday evening into Sunday.
- Temperatures will remain 15 to 20 degrees below normal this
weekend and into Tuesday, before temperatures moderate to 5 to
10 degrees below normal to end next week.
- This will be the coldest night since mid February for the area.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 PM EST FRI NOV 29 2024
With the assessment of the 00Z high resolution model data
confidence is now high enough in the light accumulating snow
event of tomorrow night into Sunday to go out with a Winter
Weather Advisory for the northeast 2/3rd of the JKL CWA. This has
been issued along with a touch up to the grids through the
advisory period. In addition, with this update have added in the
latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. Mainly due to the
addition of the Winter Weather Advisory have sent out new versions
of the zones, HWO, and SAFs.
UPDATE Issued at 710 PM EST FRI NOV 29 2024
23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure starting to more effectively
build into eastern Kentucky this evening. This has just about
cleared out the cyclonic low level flow and also tilted the sfc
winds more westerly and less upslope-y resulting in an end to the
light snow showers and flurries that have now tracked northeast of
the JKL CWA. The westerly winds of 5 to 10 mph, with still some
higher gusts to between 15 and 20 mph, will continue to bring in
colder air before the winds slacken. Also, as the skies further
clear from southwest to northeast this will set up the coldest
night since mid February as radiational cooling contributes to the
loss of heat in conjunction with the CAA. Currently, temperatures
range from the lower 30s on the ridges to the upper 20s in the
valleys while, with dewpoints in the upper teens, there is plenty
of room for readings to fall further. Have updated the forecast
mainly to align the near term T/Td/Sky grids with the latest obs
and trends. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and
web servers.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 311 PM EST FRI NOV 29 2024
Recent surface analysis is a lot less busy than it has been over the
last couple days. Surface high pressure and upper-level height rises
are building into the region from the southwest. This has allowed
the break up of the stratus cloud deck and clearing skies are
beginning to occur from southwest to northeast. As a result of the
clearing skies over the Cumberland Plateau, temperatures have been
able to climb into the upper-30s to lower-40s. Everywhere else,
temperatures are only in the low to mid-30s.
Through the remainder of the day and into the overnight, skies will
continue to clear from southwest to northeast bringing a gradual
warming to the mid to upper-30s. Tonight, clearing skies, potent
northwesterly flow advecting cold air into the area and light winds
will combine to allow overnight temperatures to fall into the mid to
upper teens to the low-20s.
Saturday into Sunday, will bring a quick moving clipper system to
the area. Surface high pressure will exist across the area through
much of the day Saturday; however, an upper-level impulse will dive
out of western Canada and bring increased PoP chances Saturday into
Sunday. Ahead of the approaching shortwave, temperatures are
forecast to climb into the mid to upper-30s. As the upper-level wave
and surface feature dive into the Commonwealth, increasing PoPs are
expected; however, a deep layer of dry air will exist over the
region and will take a few hours to erode before saturation occurs
and snowfall can reach the ground. Once saturated, snowfall will
develop and persist from Saturday night through the day Sunday.
Light snowfall accumulations will be possible; especially in areas
along and north of the Mountain Parkway. Recent QPF increases has
bumped up total snowfall amounts with this event and a Winter
Weather Advisory may be needed Saturday night into Sunday to cover
the impacts of this clipper.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 254 PM EST FRI NOV 29 2024
The long term period begins Sunday morning with a disturbance
producing light snow over central Kentucky, then moving east across
eastern Kentucky in the afternoon. The associated surface front will
cross the area by late afternoon, with cold advection snow showers
and/or flurries on the backside persisting into the evening and
overnight, especially in the typical upslope areas on the windward
side of the mountains. Additional light snow accumulations are
possible Sunday evening into Sunday night as temperatures cool
back below freezing, but the vast majority of the accumulating
snow causing minor impacts will have already fallen before the
beginning of the period Saturday night.
Otherwise, energetic cyclonic flow will persist over or just south
of the forecast area through Tuesday, resulting in chilly conditions
with low-end PoPs in the north and east parts of the forecast area
due to disturbances with limited moisture grazing the area.
Another upper disturbance moves southeast through the Ohio Valley
in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame. Warm advection ahead of the
disturbance and a cold front will allow for a moderation of
temperatures Wednesday into Wednesday night before colder air
sweeps back into the area behind the fast-moving cold front
Thursday. The NBM suggests temperatures warm enough for rain just
ahead of the front into Wednesday night, with a changeover to
snow as the front crosses the area, though it appears snow will
be un-impactful at this time, at least as indicated by the
Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI-P). Chilly air
then persists across the area through the remainder of the long-
term period through Thursday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 645 PM EST FRI NOV 29 2024
Terminals are now all VFR as the low deck of clouds continue to
erode to the northeast. Look for CIGs to remain VFR through the
rest of the TAF period while high pressure swiftly passes the
area. Westerly sustained winds of 5 to 10 kts and gusts up to 15
kts will slacken through the evening becoming light and variable
for most of the night. Look for the winds to reengage from the
west at 5 to 10 kts during the day on Saturday ahead of a quick
arriving system just after this current TAF period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday
for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...VORST/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 29, 10:35 PM EST---------------
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