PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 28, 2:19 PM CST150
FXUS63 KPAH 282019
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
219 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Very cold conditions are anticipated through Tuesday with
temperatures well below seasonal norms.
- Some light snow will be possible mainly over the northern half
of the Quad State Saturday afternoon and evening. A light
dusting remains the current forecast.
- Temperatures will moderate to near or slightly above normal by
Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024
Cold air is filtering across the Quad State today, aided by
northwest winds and persistent low cloud cover. Skies are
expected to clear by daybreak Friday, and lots of sunshine is
expected through the day. With west northwest winds and very dry
air, temperatures could overachieve a bit Friday. The southwest
half of the area is expected to reach the middle 40s, with
upper 30s expected over the northeast.
The general trends in guidance for Saturday are warmer and
drier. QPF and snowfall have the same footprint as the previous
couple of cycles, generally over the northern half of the area,
but are now half of what they were last forecast cycle. Low-
level warm advection is leading to warmer low-level
temperatures and less lift. Temperatures, especially across the
south may be a degree or two warmer than Friday. The NBM even is
sprinkling in some rain/snow mix along the southern periphery
of the precipitation Saturday afternoon. We will still have to
monitor the Tri State area for some very minor accumulations
after sunset, but impacts are still very unlikely.
Another shot of cold air will surge in behind Saturday's system,
leading to the coolest air of the period, Sunday night through
Monday night. However, guidance has ticked a bit warmer. Sunday
night will have lows, 15-20 degrees, and Monday will have the
coldest highs, lower 30s north to lower 40s west. Minimum wind
chills will be in the teens to lower 20s from Sunday morning
through Tuesday morning, but no single digits are currently
forecast.
The northwest flow aloft will relax a bit mid to late week,
allowing southwest winds to develop at the surface Tuesday and
continue for most of the work week. This will lead to a warm up
to near normal levels Wednesday and possibly next Thursday, and
also will keep any disturbances to the northeast of the region.
The NBM still has some small chance PoPs in for the southeast
half of the area Wednesday afternoon and Thursday afternoon, but
the Quad State will most likely end up dry. Looking just beyond
this seven day forecast, the northwest flow aloft will be
amplifying again and most likely bringing another shot of cold
air to the region heading into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024
MVFR ceilings are a bit more stubborn than expected. Expect
clearing at KCGI and KPAH by sunset, with some potential for
redevelopment for a few hours overnight. Elsewhere, clearing is
not likely until the overnight hours. Northwest winds may gust
15-20kts at times this afternoon and late Friday morning. There
should be enough wind and dry air to prevent any fog formation
where skies clear tonight.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 28, 2:19 PM CST---------------
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