ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 28, 3:24 PM EDT620
FXUS61 KILN 281924
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
324 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level disturbances will allow for off and on rainfall
chances through Wednesday. Dry conditions will then arrive with
high pressure Thursday through the start of Saturday before a
more unsettled weather pattern develops for the remainder of the
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A couple of disturbances will affect the area tonight. The first
disturbance causing scattered showers across northern counties
will move east this evening, and coupled with loss of daytime
heating, showers will diminish for a time. The next short wave
arriving later tonight from the northwest is expected to
trigger additional showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two.
While still affecting mainly northern locations, the showers may
also reach farther south to the Ohio River given the stronger
and larger nature of the second disturbance. Winds gusting over
20 mph early are forecast to subside overnight. However, HRRR
shows stronger gusts occurring briefly with the second batch of
showers. By 6 am, cool lows in the low to mid 50s will be
observed.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Short wave energy and a surface trough will combine with a
moderate amount of moisture to produce showers and thunderstorms
on Wednesday. Area most affected will be Central Ohio where we
have categorical pops until mid afternoon. Remainder of the area
will see lower but nonzero chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms.
For Wednesday night, showers should diminish rapidly as the
disturbance weakens and moves east, coinciding with diurnal
reduction of instability.
Below normal highs in the upper 60s to low 70s are indicated,
followed by cool lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
On Thursday, another s/wv is forecast to pass southeast across our
region. However, the airmass associated with this disturbance will
have become much drier such that pcpn is not expected. With FEW-SCT
cumulus clouds, it will continue to be cool with highs ranging from
the upper 60s north to the lower 70s south.
For Thursday night into Friday, high pressure at the surface and
aloft will build east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Skies
will be mostly clear/mostly sunny. The coolest morning will be
Friday morning will light to calm winds (lows in the 40s, but some
lower 40s possible in the usual cold spots), followed by highs in
the lower to mid 70s.
High pressure at the surface and aloft will move off to the east
Friday night into Saturday. It now appears that a mid level s/wv
will move into our region during the day Saturday. This will bring
an increase in clouds, deeper moisture, and thus a chance of showers
and thunderstorms. After lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s, highs
will range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s.
For Sunday into Monday, in a quasi-zonal pattern, moisture will
interact with episodic mid level s/wvs moving west to east through
the flow, keeping the threat for showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast. Under a southerly low level flow pattern, it will continue
to warm to more June levels (highs in the lower to mid 80s by
Monday with lows in the 60s) along with an increase in humidity.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR is being observed to start the TAF period. Scattered showers
forming under mid level disturbances and affecting CMH and LCK
may spread south to ILN and DAY tonight to Wednesday morning,
along with MVFR ceilings. CMH and LCK could see widespread
showers and isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday but kept as VCSH
for this issuance. CVG and LUK may escape those showers and
lower ceilings, though they will be monitored for possible
amendments. West to northwest winds gusting over 20 knots this
afternoon are forecast to subside tonight before rising to
around 10 knots on Wednesday. Will also need to monitor another
burst of short wave energy which could cause some brief wind
gusts tonight according to the HRRR.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Coniglio
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 28, 3:24 PM EDT---------------
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